DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2156-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85042524612
论文题名: Future southcentral US wildfire probability due to climate change
作者: Stambaugh M.C. ; Guyette R.P. ; Stroh E.D. ; Struckhoff M.A. ; Whittier J.B.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2018
卷: 147, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 617
结束页码: 631
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Mean fire interval
; New Mexico
; Oklahoma
; Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model (PC2FM)
; Texas
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Conservation
; Ecology
; Ecosystems
; Fires
; Physical chemistry
; Probability
; Fire frequencies
; Fire intervals
; New Mexico
; Oklahoma
; Texas
; Climate change
英文摘要: Globally, changing fire regimes due to climate is one of the greatest threats to ecosystems and society. In this paper, we present projections of future fire probability for the southcentral USA using downscaled climate projections and the Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model (PC2FM). Future fire probability is projected to both increase and decrease across the study region of Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. Among all end-of-century projections, change in fire probabilities (CFPs) range from − 51 to + 240%. Greatest absolute increases in fire probability are shown for areas within the range of approximately 75 to 160 cm mean annual precipitation (MAP), regardless of climate model. Although fire is likely to become more frequent across the southcentral USA, spatial patterns may remain similar unless significant increases in precipitation occur, whereby more extensive areas with increased fire probability are predicted. Perhaps one of the most important results is illumination of climate changes where fire probability response (+, −) may deviate (i.e., tipping points). Fire regimes of southcentral US ecosystems occur in a geographic transition zone from reactant- to reaction-limited conditions, potentially making them uniquely responsive to different scenarios of temperature and precipitation changes. Identification and description of these conditions may help anticipate fire regime changes that will affect human health, agriculture, species conservation, and nutrient and water cycling. © 2018, This is a U.S. Government work and not under copyright protection in the US; foreign copyright protection may apply. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83746
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: School of Natural Resources, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO, United States; U.S. Geological Survey, Columbia Environmental Research Center, Columbia, MO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Stambaugh M.C.,Guyette R.P.,Stroh E.D.,et al. Future southcentral US wildfire probability due to climate change[J]. Climatic Change,2018-01-01,147(2018-03-04)