DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2151-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85042223991
论文题名: Climate change impacts on regional rice production in China
作者: Lv Z. ; Zhu Y. ; Liu X. ; Ye H. ; Tian Y. ; Li F.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2018
卷: 147, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 523
结束页码: 537
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Global climate model
; Grid
; Rice yield
; Sowing date
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Crops
; Filling
; Food supply
; Grain (agricultural product)
; Uncertainty analysis
; Comprehensive analysis
; Global climate model
; Grain-filling periods
; Grid
; Rice (Oryza sativa L.)
; Rice yield
; Simulation uncertainty
; Sowing date
; Climate change
; Ceres
; Oryza sativa
英文摘要: Rice (Oryza sativa L.) production is an important contributor to China’s food security. Climate change, and its impact on rice production, presents challenges in meeting China’s future rice production requirements. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of how rice yield responds to climate change under different scenarios and assessed the associated simulation uncertainties of various regional-scale climate models. Simulation was performed based on a regional calibrated crop model (CERES-Rice) and spatially matched climatic (from 17 global climate models), soil, management, and cultivar parameters. Grain-filling periods for early rice were shortened by 2–7 days in three time slices (2030s, 2050s, and 2070s), whereas grain-filling periods for late rice were shortened by 10–19 days in three time slices. Most of the negative effects of climate change were predicted to affect single-crop rice in central China. Average yields of single-crop rice treated with CO2 fertiliser in central China were predicted to be reduced by 10, 11, and 11% during the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, respectively, compared to the 2000s, if planting dates remained unchanged. If planting dates were optimised, single-crop rice yields were predicted to increase by 3, 7, and 11% during the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, respectively. In response to climate changes, early and single-crop rice should be planted earlier, and late rice planting should be delayed. The predicted net effect would be to prolong the grain-filling period and optimise rice yield. © 2018, Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83748
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Agronomy, The Key Laboratory for Quality Improvement of Agricultural Products of Zhejiang Province, College of Agriculture and Food Science, Zhejiang A & F University, Lin’an, Hangzhou, China; National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Nanjing Agricultural University, 1 Weigang Road, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; Institute of Digital Agriculture, Zhejiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Shiqiao Rd, Zhejiang, Hangzhou, China
Recommended Citation:
Lv Z.,Zhu Y.,Liu X.,et al. Climate change impacts on regional rice production in China[J]. Climatic Change,2018-01-01,147(2018-03-04)