DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2114-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85034600589
论文题名: Potential impacts of climate warming and increased summer heat stress on the electric grid: a case study for a large power transformer (LPT) in the Northeast United States
作者: Gao X. ; Schlosser C.A. ; Morgan E.R.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2018
卷: 147, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 107
结束页码: 118
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Electric grid
; General circulation model
; Heat wave
; Synoptic atmospheric conditions
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climatology
; Electric power transmission networks
; Power transformers
; Risk assessment
; Atmospheric conditions
; Conventional approach
; Electric grids
; Environmentally responsible
; General circulation model
; Heat waves
; Large power transformers
; Operational lifetime
; Climate models
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; environmental conditions
; environmental stress
; future prospect
; general circulation model
; heat wave
; smart grid
; summer
; synoptic meteorology
; temperature
; warming
; United States
英文摘要: Large power transformers (LPTs) are critical yet vulnerable components of the power grid. More frequent and intense heat waves or high temperatures can degrade their operational lifetime and increase the risk of premature failure. Without adequate preparedness, a widespread situation could ultimately lead to prolonged grid disruption and incur excessive economic costs. Here, we investigate the potential impact of climate warming and corresponding shifts in summertime “hot days” on a selected LPT located in the Northeast United States. We apply an analogue method, which detects the occurrence of hot days based on the salient, associated large-scale atmospheric conditions, to assess the risk of future change in their occurrence. Compared with the more conventional approach that relies on climate model-simulated daily maximum temperature, the analogue method produces model medians of late twentieth century hot day frequency that are more consistent with observation and have stronger inter-model consensus. Under the climate warming scenarios, multi-model medians of both model daily maximum temperature and the analogue method indicate strong decadal increases in hot day frequency by the late twenty-first century, but the analogue method improves model consensus considerably. The decrease of transformer lifetime with temperature increase is further assessed. The improved inter-model consensus of the analogue method is viewed as a promising step toward providing actionable information for a more stable, reliable, and environmentally responsible national grid. © 2017, Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83786
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States; MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Gao X.,Schlosser C.A.,Morgan E.R.. Potential impacts of climate warming and increased summer heat stress on the electric grid: a case study for a large power transformer (LPT) in the Northeast United States[J]. Climatic Change,2018-01-01,147(2018-01-02)