DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2115-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85037611548
论文题名: The impacts avoided with a 1.5 °C climate target: a global and regional assessment
作者: Arnell N.W. ; Lowe J.A. ; Lloyd-Hughes B. ; Osborn T.J.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2018
卷: 147, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 61
结束页码: 76
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Offshore structures
; Climate targets
; Global scale
; Global temperature change
; Global-mean temperature
; Heat waves
; Heating and cooling
; Pre-industrial levels
; River flooding
; Climatology
; climate change
; climate effect
; environmental assessment
; environmental impact assessment
; environmental indicator
; global perspective
; heat wave
; international agreement
英文摘要: The 2015 Paris Agreement commits countries to pursue efforts to limit the increase in global mean temperature to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. We assess the consequences of achieving this target in 2100 for the impacts that are avoided, using several indicators of impact (exposure to drought, river flooding, heat waves and demands for heating and cooling energy). The proportion of impacts that are avoided is not simply equal to the proportional reduction in temperature. At the global scale, the median proportion of projected impacts avoided by the 1.5 °C target relative to a rise of 4 °C ranges between 62 and 95% across sectors: the greatest reduction is for heat wave impacts. The 1.5 °C target results in impacts that would be between 27 and 62% lower than with the 2 °C target. For each indicator, there are differences in the proportions of impacts avoided between regions depending on exposure and the regional changes in climate (particularly precipitation). Uncertainty in the proportion of impacts that are avoided for a specific sector depends on the range in the shape of the relationship between global temperature change and impact, and this varies between sectors. © 2017, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83791
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Department of Meteorology and Walker Institute, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Priestley Centre, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; Institute for Environmental Analytics, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Arnell N.W.,Lowe J.A.,Lloyd-Hughes B.,et al. The impacts avoided with a 1.5 °C climate target: a global and regional assessment[J]. Climatic Change,2018-01-01,147(2018-01-02)