DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1616-2
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84958742034
论文题名: Future risk of record-breaking summer temperatures and its mitigation
作者: Lehner F. ; Deser C. ; Sanderson B.M.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2018
卷: 146, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 363
结束页码: 375
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Global warming
; Earth system model
; Emissions scenarios
; Model bias
; Potential risks
; Risk reductions
; Summer temperature
; Temperature variance
; Probability
英文摘要: The probability that summer temperatures in the future will exceed the hottest on record during 1920–2014 is projected to increase at all land locations with global warming. Within the BRACE project framework we investigate the sensitivity of this projected change in probability to the choice of emissions scenario using two large ensembles of simulations with the Community Earth System Model. The large ensemble size allows for a robust assessment of the probability of record-breaking temperatures. Globally, the probability that any summer during the period 2061–2081 will be warmer than the hottest on record is 80 % for RCP 8.5 and 41 % for RCP 4.5. Hence, mitigation can reduce the risk of record-breaking temperatures by 39 %. The potential for risk reduction is greatest for some of the most populated regions of the globe. In Europe, for example, a potential risk reduction of over 50 % is projected. Model biases and future changes in temperature variance have only minor effects on the results, as their contribution stays well below 10 % for almost all locations. © 2016, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83809
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Climate and Global Dynamics, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Lehner F.,Deser C.,Sanderson B.M.. Future risk of record-breaking summer temperatures and its mitigation[J]. Climatic Change,2018-01-01,146(2018-03-04)