DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1791-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84988737060
论文题名: Avoided economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: integrating a land surface model (CLM) with a global economic model (iPETS)
作者: Ren X. ; Weitzel M. ; O’Neill B.C. ; Lawrence P. ; Meiyappan P. ; Levis S. ; Balistreri E.J. ; Dalton M.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2018
卷: 146, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 517
结束页码: 531
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Avoided impacts
; Climate change
; CO2 fertilization
; Crop yields
; Integrated assessment
Scopus关键词: Agriculture
; Carbon dioxide
; Climate models
; Costs
; Crops
; Earth (planet)
; Economic and social effects
; Economics
; Land use
; Surface measurement
; Vegetation
; Avoided impacts
; Community land models
; Crop yield
; Global integrated assessments
; Integrated assessment
; Land surface modeling
; Sensitivity-of-results
; Socio-economic conditions
; Climate change
英文摘要: Crop yields are vulnerable to climate change. We assess the global impacts of climate change on agricultural systems under two climate projections (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5) to quantify the difference in impacts if climate change were reduced. We also employ two different socioeconomic pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) to assess the sensitivity of results to the underlying socioeconomic conditions. The integrated-Population-Economy-Technology-Science (iPETS) model, a global integrated assessment model for projecting future energy use, land use and emissions, is used in conjunction with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), and particularly its land surface component, the Community Land Model (CLM), to evaluate climate change impacts on agriculture. iPETS results are produced at the level of nine world regions for the period 2005–2100. We employ climate impacts on crop yield derived from CLM, driven by CESM simulations of the two RCPs. These yield effects are applied within iPETS, imposed on baseline and mitigation scenarios for SSP3 and SSP5 that are consistent with the RCPs. We find that the reduced level of warming in RCP4.5 (relative to RCP8.5) can have either positive or negative effects on the economy since crop yield either increases or decreases with climate change depending on assumptions about CO2 fertilization. Yields are up to 12 % lower, and crop prices are up to 15 % higher, in RCP4.5 relative to RCP8.5 if CO2 fertilization is included, whereas yields are up to 22 % higher, and crop prices up to 22 % lower, if it is not. We also find that in the mitigation scenarios (RCP4.5), crop prices are substantially affected by mitigation actions as well as by climate impacts. For the scenarios we evaluated, the development pathway (SSP3 vs SSP5) has a larger impact on outcomes than climate (RCP4.5 vs RCP8.5), by a factor of 3 for crop prices, 11 for total cropland use, and 35 for GDP on global average. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83810
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, United States; The Climate Corporation, San Francisco, CA, United States; Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO, United States; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Seattle, WA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Ren X.,Weitzel M.,O’Neill B.C.,et al. Avoided economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: integrating a land surface model (CLM) with a global economic model (iPETS)[J]. Climatic Change,2018-01-01,146(2018-03-04)