DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1654-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84962033959
论文题名: CLMcrop yields and water requirements: avoided impacts by choosing RCP 4.5 over 8.5
作者: Levis S. ; Badger A. ; Drewniak B. ; Nevison C. ; Ren X.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2018
卷: 146, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 501
结束页码: 515
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Agriculture
; Carbon dioxide
; Climate change
; Irrigation
; Plant expansion
; Soil moisture
; Tropics
; Agricultural expansion
; Avoided impacts
; Climatic changes
; Environmental change
; Irrigation requirements
; Plant respiration
; Rising temperatures
; Water requirements
; Crops
; carbon monoxide
; climate change
; climate effect
; crop yield
; environmental change
; fertilizer application
; irrigation system
; respiration
; soil moisture
; vulnerability
; water demand
; yield response
; Africa
; South America
; Glycine max
; Triticum aestivum
; Zea mays
英文摘要: We perform CLMcrop simulations of the 20th and 21st centuries to assess potential avoided impacts in (a) crop yield losses and (b) water demand increases if humanity were to choose the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 instead of 8.5. RCP 8.5 imposes more extreme climatic changes on CLMcrop, while simultaneously exposing the crops to higher CO2 fertilization than RCP 4.5. As a result CLMcrop simulates global to regional scale changes in yield and water requirements for RCP 8.5 that exceed and sometimes more than double the RCP 4.5 changes relative to today. Under RCP 4.5 then, human societies may confront easier adaptation to changes in crop yields and water requirements. Under both RCPs, CLMcrop projects declining global yields for C3 crops (e.g., wheat, soybean, rice) without CO2 fertilization and C4 crops (corn, sugarcane) without irrigation. Yield declines of 3 t ha−1 stand out in parts of tropical and subtropical Africa and South America (presently areas of rapid agricultural expansion) and are due to increasing plant respiration and decreasing soil moisture, both due to rising temperatures. Irrigation and CO2 fertilization mitigate yield losses and in some cases lead to gains, so irrigation may help maintain or increase current yields through the 21st century. However, simulated global irrigation requirements increase: as much as 23 % for C4 crops without CO2 fertilization under RCP 8.5 and as little as 3 % for C4 crops with CO2 fertilization under RCP4.5. Nitrogen fertilized crops display greater vulnerability to climate and environmental change than unfertilized crops in our simulations; still relative to unfertilized crops, they deliver significantly higher yields and remain indispensable in supporting a more populous and affluent humanity. These CLMcrop results broadly agree with previously published outcomes for the 21st century. We describe in this article a new version of CLMcrop that represents prognostic crop behavior not only in the mid-latitudes but also the tropics. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83822
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Now at The Climate Corporation, San Francisco, CA, United States; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States; Argonne National Lab, Environmental Science Division, Argonne, IL, United States; University of Colorado, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Levis S.,Badger A.,Drewniak B.,et al. CLMcrop yields and water requirements: avoided impacts by choosing RCP 4.5 over 8.5[J]. Climatic Change,2018-01-01,146(2018-03-04)