DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1947-7
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85018357382
论文题名: Groundwater depletion and climate change: future prospects of crop production in the Central High Plains Aquifer
作者: Cotterman K.A. ; Kendall A.D. ; Basso B. ; Hyndman D.W.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2018
卷: 146, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 187
结束页码: 200
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Aquifers
; Crops
; Cultivation
; Groundwater
; Groundwater resources
; Irrigation
; Land use
; Landforms
; Population statistics
; Recharging (underground waters)
; Water conservation
; Water management
; Economic stability
; Future prospects
; Groundwater depletion
; Groundwater management
; Groundwater storage
; Groundwater withdrawal
; Natural recharge
; Population growth
; Climate change
; agricultural modeling
; climate change
; crop production
; crop yield
; demand analysis
; economic impact
; future prospect
; groundwater exploration
; recharge
; resource depletion
; water management
; water storage
; Ogallala Aquifer
; United States
; Animalia
; Triticum aestivum
; Zea mays
英文摘要: Crop production in the Central High Plains is at an all-time high due to increased demand for biofuels, food, and animal products. Despite the need to produce more food by mid-century to meet expected population growth, under current management and genetics, crop production is likely to plateau or decline in the Central High Plains due to groundwater withdrawal at rates that greatly exceed recharge to the aquifer. The Central High Plains has experienced a consistent decline in groundwater storage due to groundwater withdrawal for irrigation greatly exceeding natural recharge. In this heavily irrigated region, water is essential to maintain yields and economic stability. Here, we evaluate how current trends in irrigation demand may impact groundwater depletion and quantify the impacts of these changes on crop yield and production through to 2099 using the well-established System Approach to Land Use Sustainability (SALUS) crop model. The results show that status quo groundwater management will likely reduce irrigated corn acreage by ~60% and wheat acreage by ~50%. This widespread forced shift to dryland farming, coupled with the likely effects of climate change, will contribute to overall changes in crop production. Taking into account both changes in yield and available irrigated acreage, corn production would decrease by approximately 60%, while production of wheat would remain fairly steady with a slight increase of about 2%. © 2017, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83831
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, United States; W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University, Hickory Corners, MI, United States
Recommended Citation:
Cotterman K.A.,Kendall A.D.,Basso B.,et al. Groundwater depletion and climate change: future prospects of crop production in the Central High Plains Aquifer[J]. Climatic Change,2018-01-01,146(2018-01-02)