DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2045-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85027685024
论文题名: Fire weather and likelihood: characterizing climate space for fire occurrence and extent in Puerto Rico
作者: Van Beusekom A.E. ; Gould W.A. ; Monmany A.C. ; Khalyani A.H. ; Quiñones M. ; Fain S.J. ; Andrade-Núñez M.J. ; González G.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2018
卷: 146, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 117
结束页码: 131
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Decision trees
; Fires
; Forestry
; Learning systems
; Meteorology
; Climate measurements
; Cumulative effects
; Fire prone ecosystems
; Future climate projections
; Negative examples
; Positive examples
; Random forest classifier
; Temporal variability
; Climate change
; algorithm
; climate change
; climate conditions
; climate prediction
; fire
; fire history
; machine learning
; probability
; socioeconomic conditions
; temperate environment
; temporal variation
; terrestrial ecosystem
; tropical forest
; weather
; Puerto Rico
英文摘要: Assessing the relationships between weather patterns and the likelihood of fire occurrence in the Caribbean has not been as central to climate change research as in temperate regions, due in part to the smaller extent of individual fires. However, the cumulative effect of small frequent fires can shape large landscapes, and fire-prone ecosystems are abundant in the tropics. Climate change has the potential to greatly expand fire-prone areas to moist and wet tropical forests and grasslands that have been traditionally less fire-prone, and to extend and create more temporal variability in fire seasons. We built a machine learning random forest classifier to analyze the relationship between climatic, socio-economic, and fire history data with fire occurrence and extent for the years 2003–2011 in Puerto Rico, nearly 35,000 fires. Using classifiers based on climate measurements alone, we found that the climate space is a reliable associate, if not a predictor, of fire occurrence and extent in this environment. We found a strong relationship between occurrence and a change from average weather conditions, and between extent and severity of weather conditions. The probability that the random forest classifiers will rank a positive example higher than a negative example is 0.8–0.89 in the classifiers for deciding if a fire occurs, and 0.64–0.69 in the classifiers for deciding if the fire is greater than 5 ha. Future climate projections of extreme seasons indicate increased potential for fire occurrence with larger extents. © 2017, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht (outside the USA). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83838
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: USDA Forest Service, International Institute of Tropical Forestry, Río Piedras, Puerto Rico; Instituto de Ecología Regional, CONICET-Universidad Nacional de Tucumán, Tucumán, Argentina; Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States; Department of Environmental Science, University of Puerto Rico, Río Piedras, Puerto Rico
Recommended Citation:
Van Beusekom A.E.,Gould W.A.,Monmany A.C.,et al. Fire weather and likelihood: characterizing climate space for fire occurrence and extent in Puerto Rico[J]. Climatic Change,2018-01-01,146(2018-01-02)