DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1997-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85020739900
论文题名: Vulnerability of grain crops and croplands in the Midwest to climatic variability and adaptation strategies
作者: Hatfield J.L. ; Wright-Morton L. ; Hall B.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2018
卷: 146, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 263
结束页码: 275
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Agriculture
; Amino acids
; Crops
; Grain (agricultural product)
; Innovation
; Meteorology
; Nitrogen fixation
; Plants (botany)
; Adaptation strategies
; Climatic variability
; Innovative strategies
; Meteorological variables
; Minimum temperatures
; Precipitation change
; Soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.)
; Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)
; Climate change
; adaptive management
; agricultural land
; agrometeorology
; cereal
; climate change
; crop plant
; crop production
; crop yield
; innovation
; maize
; precipitation (climatology)
; seasonality
; soybean
; temperature
; vulnerability
; yield response
; Corn Belt
; Midwest
; United States
; Avena
; Avena sativa
; Glycine max
; Triticum aestivum
; Zea mays
英文摘要: Maize (Zea mays L.) and soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) are the dominant grain crops across the Midwest and are grown on 75% of the arable land with small but economically important crops of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and oats (Avena sativa L.) but economically important crops. Historically, there have been variations in annual yields for maize and soybean related to the seasonal weather patterns. Key concerns are the impacts of future climate change on maize and soybean production and their vulnerability to future climate changes. To evaluate these, we analyzed the yield gaps as the difference between the attainable and actual yield at the county level and observed meteorological data to determine which seasonal meteorological variables were dominant in quantifying the actual/attainable yields. July maximum temperatures, August minimum temperatures, and July–August total precipitation were found to be the significant factors affecting the yield gap. These relationships were used to estimate the change in the yield gap through 2100 using both the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios for these variables for selected counties across the Midwest. Yield gaps increased with time for maize across the Midwest with the largest increases in the southern portion of the Corn Belt showing a large north-south gradient in the increase of the yield gap and minimal east-west gradient. Soybean was not as sensitive as maize because the projected temperatures do not exceed optimum temperature ranges for growth and reductions in production that are more sensitive to precipitation changes during the reproductive stages. Adaptation strategies for maize and soybean will require more innovation than simple agronomic management and require the linkage between geneticists, agronomists, and agricultural meteorologists to develop innovative strategies to preserve production in the Midwest. © 2017, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83844
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Laboratory Director and Supervisory Plant Physiologist, National Laboratory for Agriculture and the Environment, 1015 N. University Blvd., Ames, IA, United States; Department of Rural Sociology, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, United States; Midwest Regional Climate Center, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, United States
Recommended Citation:
Hatfield J.L.,Wright-Morton L.,Hall B.. Vulnerability of grain crops and croplands in the Midwest to climatic variability and adaptation strategies[J]. Climatic Change,2018-01-01,146(2018-01-02)