DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2091-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85032026575
论文题名: Climate variability of heat wave and projection of warming scenario in Taiwan
作者: Lin C.-Y. ; Chien Y.-Y. ; Su C.-J. ; Kueh M.-T. ; Lung S.-C.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 145, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 305
结束页码: 320
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Global warming
; Thermal stress
; Air temperature
; Climate variability
; Data availability
; Data distribution
; Dynamic downscaling
; Major cities
; Stress thresholds
; Wet-bulb globe temperatures
; Climatology
; adaptive management
; air temperature
; climate change
; climate prediction
; downscaling
; future prospect
; global warming
; heat wave
; relative humidity
; threshold
; trend analysis
; Kaohsiung
; Taichung
; Taipei
; Taiwan
英文摘要: This study examined the climate variability of heat wave (HW) according to air temperature and relative humidity to determine trends of variation and stress threshold in three major cities of Taiwan, Taipei (TP), Taichung (TC), and Kaohsiung (KH), in the past four decades (1971–2010). According to the data availability, the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) heat stress for the three studied cities was also calculated for the past (2003–2012) and simulated under the future warming scenario for the end of this century (2075–2099) using ECHAM5/MPIOM-WRF (ECW) dynamic downscaling 5-km resolution. Analysis showed that past decade (2001–2010) saw increase not only in the number of HW days in all three cities but also in the duration of each HW event in TP and KH. Simulation results revealed that ECW well captures the characteristics of data distribution in these three cities during 2003–2012. Under the A1B projection, ECW yielded higher WBGT in all three cities for 2075–2099. The WBGT in TP indicated that the heat stress for 50% of the days in July and August by 2075–2099 will be at danger level (WBGT ≥ 31 °C). Even the median of WBGT in TC and KH (30.91 and 30.88 °C, respectively) are close to 31 °C. Hence, the heat stress in all three cities will either exceed or approach the danger level by the end of this century. Such projection under the global warming trend would necessitate adaptation and mitigation, and the huge impact of dangerous heat stress on public health merits urgent attention for Taiwan. © 2017, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83868
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Research Center for Environmental “Changes”, Academia Sinica, 128 Sec. 2, Academia Rd, Nangang, Taipei, Taiwan
Recommended Citation:
Lin C.-Y.,Chien Y.-Y.,Su C.-J.,et al. Climate variability of heat wave and projection of warming scenario in Taiwan[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,145(2018-03-04)