DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2075-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85030545098
论文题名: Understanding the detectability of potential changes to the 100-year peak storm surge
作者: Ceres R.L. ; Forest C.E. ; Keller K.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 145, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 221
结束页码: 235
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Flood control
; Investments
; Risk management
; Storms
; Adaptive risk management
; Coastal communities
; Flood risk management
; Infrastructure project
; Low probability
; Observing system simulation experiments
; Potential change
; Substantial investments
; Floods
; adaptive management
; climate change
; coastal zone
; environmental risk
; experimental design
; flood control
; policy making
; project management
; risk assessment
; storm surge
; strategic approach
英文摘要: In many coastal communities, the risks driven by storm surges are motivating substantial investments in flood risk management. The design of adaptive risk management strategies, however, hinges on the ability to detect future changes in storm surge statistics. Previous studies have used observations to identify changes in past storm surge statistics. Here, we focus on the simple and decision-relevant question: How fast can we learn from past and potential future storm surge observations about changes in future statistics? Using Observing System Simulation Experiments, we quantify the time required to detect changes in the probability of extreme storm surge events. We estimate low probabilities of detection when substantial but gradual changes to the 100-year storm surge occur. As a result, policy makers may underestimate considerable increases in storm surge risk over the typically long lifespans of major infrastructure projects. © 2017, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83875
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Department of Geosciences, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Ceres R.L.,Forest C.E.,Keller K.. Understanding the detectability of potential changes to the 100-year peak storm surge[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,145(2018-01-02)