DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2081-2
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85030184927
论文题名: Projected reductions in climatic suitability for vulnerable British birds
作者: Massimino D. ; Johnston A. ; Gillings S. ; Jiguet F. ; Pearce-Higgins J.W.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 145, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 117
结束页码: 130
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Birds
; Conservation
; Forestry
; Community composition
; Conservation strategies
; Emission scenario
; Population change
; Population decline
; Presence-absence
; Presence-only datum
; Species abundance
; Climate change
; adaptive management
; biological survey
; bird
; climate change
; climate effect
; community composition
; conservation management
; long-term change
; population decline
; population dynamics
; Red List
; vulnerability
; France
; United Kingdom
; Aves
英文摘要: Projections of species’ distributions in future climates can aid adaptive conservation strategies. Although presence-absence or presence-only data have been extensively used for this purpose, modelling changes in spatial patterns of abundance provides a more sensitive tool for estimating species’ vulnerabilities to climate impacts. We used abundance data from citizen science bird surveys in the UK and France to predict spatial patterns of future climatic suitability throughout Great Britain for 124 breeding bird species. We project that climatic suitability of Great Britain will increase for 44% of species and decline for 9% of species by 2080. Of the latter group, most are already red-listed for their severe long-term population declines. If our suitability projections translate into population changes, by 2080, conservation listing status will worsen for 10 species and improve for 28 species. Projected changes in climatic suitability translate into net gains of species abundance in northern and western areas and high turnover in community composition throughout Britain, particularly under medium- and high-emission scenarios. In conclusion, community-wide projections of changes in climatic suitability based on abundance indicate that bird assemblages throughout Great Britain will be impacted by climate change and that species already of concern are likely to be impacted hardest. Of the species projected to benefit, the ability of currently red-listed species to respond positively to climate without other interventions is unclear. © 2017, Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83877
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, United Kingdom; Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Cornell University, 159 Sapsucker Woods Road, Ithaca, NY, United States; Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge, United Kingdom; Centre d’Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation UMR7204 Sorbonne Universités-MNHN-CNRS-UPMC CP135, 43 Rue Buffon, Paris, France
Recommended Citation:
Massimino D.,Johnston A.,Gillings S.,et al. Projected reductions in climatic suitability for vulnerable British birds[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,145(2018-01-02)