DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2055-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85028559773
论文题名: Assessing uncertainty of climate change impacts on long-term hydropower generation using the CMIP5 ensemble—the case of Ecuador
作者: Carvajal P.E. ; Anandarajah G. ; Mulugetta Y. ; Dessens O.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 144, 期: 4 起始页码: 611
结束页码: 624
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Electric power generation
; Hydroelectric power
; Hydroelectric power plants
; Reservoirs (water)
; Uncertainty analysis
; Water resources
; Climate change impact
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Global circulation model
; Hydro-power generation
; Hydro-power resources
; Hydroelectric power production
; Hydroelectric reservoirs
; Resource availability
; Climate change
; assessment method
; climate change
; climate effect
; CMIP
; hydroelectric power
; long-term change
; power generation
; resource availability
; uncertainty analysis
; Ecuador
英文摘要: This study presents a method to assess the sensitivity of hydropower generation to uncertain water resource availability driven by future climate change. A hydrology-electricity modelling framework was developed and applied to six rivers where 10 hydropower stations operate, which together represent over 85% of Ecuador’s installed hydropower capacity. The modelling framework was then forced with bias-corrected output from 40 individual global circulation model experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 for the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario. Impacts of changing climate on hydropower resource were quantified for 2071–2100 relative to a baseline period 1971–2000. Results show a wide annual average inflow range from + 277% to − 85% when individual climate experiments are assessed. The analysis also show that hydropower generation in Ecuador is highly uncertain and sensitive to climate change since variations in inflow to hydropower stations would directly result in changes in the expected hydropower potential. Annual hydroelectric power production in Ecuador is found to vary between − 55 and + 39% of the mean historical output when considering future inflow patterns to hydroelectric reservoirs covering one standard deviation of the CMIP5 RCP4.5 climate ensemble. © 2017, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83896
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: UCL Energy Institute, University College London, Central House 14 Upper Woburn Place, London, United Kingdom; Department of Science, Technology, Engineering and Public Policy, University College London, 36-37 Fitzroy Square, London, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Carvajal P.E.,Anandarajah G.,Mulugetta Y.,et al. Assessing uncertainty of climate change impacts on long-term hydropower generation using the CMIP5 ensemble—the case of Ecuador[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,144(4)