DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2054-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85028522121
论文题名: Effects of different climate downscaling methods on the assessment of climate change impacts on wheat cropping systems
作者: Liu D.L. ; O’Leary G.J. ; Christy B. ; Macadam I. ; Wang B. ; Anwar M.R. ; Weeks A.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 144, 期: 4 起始页码: 687
结束页码: 701
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Agriculture
; Climate models
; Crops
; Digital storage
; Soil moisture
; Agricultural production system
; Annual mean temperatures
; Change factor methods
; Climate change impact
; Climate change impact assessments
; Downscaling methods
; Global climate model
; Soil water balance
; Climate change
; agricultural production
; agrometeorology
; climate change
; climate effect
; downscaling
; farming system
; general circulation model
; global climate
; rainfall
; soil water
; water budget
; wheat
; Triticum aestivum
英文摘要: The use of different downscaling methods (DSMs) to generate downscaled daily climate (DDC) data for assessing climate change impacts on wheat cropping systems was investigated. DDC data were generated from SRES A2 emission scenario simulations of seven global climate models (GCMs) using two different change factor methods, denoted as DTS and RSC, and two weather generator methods, LARS-WG (LWG) and NWAI-WG (NWG). The DDC data were used to drive the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) wheat model. Significant differences in future changes in simulated crop growth and soil water balance were found between the four DSMs. For raw GCM output, multi-GCM mean changes by the mid-twenty-first century in annual mean temperature (AMT) ranged from +1.2 to +2.0 °C and in annual rainfall (AR) ranged from −11 to −5% across the 6 study sites. The DTS, LWG and NWG SDMs modified the raw GCM changes in both AMT and AR. As a result, climate change impacts on crop growth and soil water balance are not well correlated between DSMs. Since different DSMs give different impact results, we conclude that in addition to using multiple GCMs, selecting appropriate DSMs can be an important consideration in climate change impact assessments. © 2017, Springer Science+Business Media B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83900
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: NSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga Wagga, NSW, Australia; Agriculture Victoria Research, Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources, PB 260, Horsham, VIC, Australia; Agriculture Victoria Research, Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources, PB 260, Rutherglen, VIC, Australia; Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Now at Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Liu D.L.,O’Leary G.J.,Christy B.,et al. Effects of different climate downscaling methods on the assessment of climate change impacts on wheat cropping systems[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,144(4)