DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2060-7
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85028993710
论文题名: Projected warming portends seasonal shifts of stream temperatures in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada
作者: Jones L.A. ; Muhlfeld C.C. ; Marshall L.A.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 144, 期: 4 起始页码: 641
结束页码: 655
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Ecology
; Ecosystems
; Adaptation strategies
; Climate change impact
; Freshwater habitats
; Future climate scenarios
; Mountainous regions
; Spatiotemporal patterns
; Statistical modeling
; Stream temperatures
; Climate change
; adaptive management
; climate effect
; conservation management
; extreme event
; global warming
; mountain region
; seasonal variation
; stream
; valley glacier
; water temperature
; Canada
; United States
英文摘要: Climate warming is expected to increase stream temperatures in mountainous regions of western North America, yet the degree to which future climate change may influence seasonal patterns of stream temperature is uncertain. In this study, a spatially explicit statistical model framework was integrated with empirical stream temperature data (approximately four million bi-hourly recordings) and high-resolution climate and land surface data to estimate monthly stream temperatures and potential change under future climate scenarios in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada (72,000 km2). Moderate and extreme warming scenarios forecast increasing stream temperatures during spring, summer, and fall, with the largest increases predicted during summer (July, August, and September). Additionally, thermal regimes characteristic of current August temperatures, the warmest month of the year, may be exceeded during July and September, suggesting an earlier onset and extended duration of warm summer stream temperatures. Models estimate that the largest magnitude of temperature warming relative to current conditions may be observed during the shoulder months of winter (April and November). Summer stream temperature warming is likely to be most pronounced in glacial-fed streams where models predict the largest magnitude (> 50%) of change due to the loss of alpine glaciers. We provide the first broad-scale analysis of seasonal climate effects on spatiotemporal patterns of stream temperature in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem for better understanding climate change impacts on freshwater habitats and guiding conservation and climate adaptation strategies. © 2017, Springer Science+Business Media B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83913
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: US Geological Survey, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, West Glacier, MT, United States; Department of Biological Science, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, United States; Alaska Center for Conservation Science, University of Alaska Achorage, Anchorage, AK, United States; Flathead Lake Biological Station, University of Montana, Polson, MT, United States; School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Jones L.A.,Muhlfeld C.C.,Marshall L.A.. Projected warming portends seasonal shifts of stream temperatures in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,144(4)