DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2048-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85028637572
论文题名: Assessing climate change impacts on extreme weather events: the case for an alternative (Bayesian) approach
作者: Mann M.E. ; Lloyd E.A. ; Oreskes N.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 144, 期: 2 起始页码: 131
结束页码: 142
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Bayesian networks
; Decision making
; Weather information services
; Alternative hypothesis
; Bayesian approaches
; Climate change impact
; Conventional approach
; Extreme weather events
; Opportunity costs
; Proof of concept
; Statistical inference
; Climate change
; assessment method
; Bayesian analysis
; climate change
; decision making
; environmental modeling
; extreme event
英文摘要: The conventional approach to detecting and attributing climate change impacts on extreme weather events is generally based on frequentist statistical inference wherein a null hypothesis of no influence is assumed, and the alternative hypothesis of an influence is accepted only when the null hypothesis can be rejected at a sufficiently high (e.g., 95% or “p = 0.05”) level of confidence. Using a simple conceptual model for the occurrence of extreme weather events, we show that if the objective is to minimize forecast error, an alternative approach wherein likelihoods of impact are continually updated as data become available is preferable. Using a simple “proof-of-concept,” we show that such an approach will, under rather general assumptions, yield more accurate forecasts. We also argue that such an approach will better serve society, in providing a more effective means to alert decision-makers to potential and unfolding harms and avoid opportunity costs. In short, a Bayesian approach is preferable, both empirically and ethically. © 2017, Springer Science+Business Media B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83931
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, Penn State University, University Park, PA, United States; History and Philosophy of Science Department, Indiana University, 652 Ballantine Hall, Bloomington, IN, United States; History of Science Department, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Mann M.E.,Lloyd E.A.,Oreskes N.. Assessing climate change impacts on extreme weather events: the case for an alternative (Bayesian) approach[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,144(2)