DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2021-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85021980718
论文题名: Potential impact of climate change on streamflow of major Ethiopian rivers
作者: Gizaw M.S. ; Biftu G.F. ; Gan T.Y. ; Moges S.A. ; Koivusalo H.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 143, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 371
结束页码: 383
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Rivers
; Stream flow
; Climate projection
; Complex topographies
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Global climate model
; Hydrologic simulations
; Mean annual precipitation
; Potential impacts
; Regional climate models
; Climate change
; calibration
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; CMIP
; hydrological modeling
; model validation
; precipitation (climatology)
; prediction
; river basin
; software
; streamflow
; temperature
; Ethiopia
英文摘要: In this study, HSPF (Hydrologic Simulation Program-FORTRAN) was used to analyze the potential impact of climate change on the streamflow of four major river basins in Ethiopia: Awash, Baro, Genale, and Tekeze. The calibrated and validated HSPF model was forced with daily climate data of 10 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) Global Climate Models (GCMs) for the 1971–2000 control period and the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate projections of 2041–2070 (2050s) and 2071–2100 (2080s). The ensemble median of these 10 GCMs projects the temperature in the four study areas to increase by about 2.3 °C (3.3 °C) in 2050s (2080s), whereas the mean annual precipitation is projected to increase by about 6% (9%) in 2050s (2080s). This results in about 3% (6%) increase in the projected annual streamflow in Awash, Baro, and Tekeze rivers whereas the annual streamflow of Genale river is projected to increase by about 18% (33%) in the 2050s (2080s). However, such projected increase in the mean annual streamflow due to increasing precipitation over Ethiopia contradicts the decreasing trends in mean annual precipitation observed in recent decades. Regional climate models of high resolutions could provide more realistic climate projections for Ethiopia’s complex topography, thus reducing the uncertainties in future streamflow projections. © 2017, Springer Science+Business Media B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83958
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada; Golder Associates, Calgary, AB, Canada; School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, AAIT, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Aalto University School of Engineering, Aalto, Finland
Recommended Citation:
Gizaw M.S.,Biftu G.F.,Gan T.Y.,et al. Potential impact of climate change on streamflow of major Ethiopian rivers[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,143(2018-03-04)