DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2000-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85021985191
论文题名: Cost-benefit analysis of climate change adaptation for power pole networks
作者: Ryan P.C. ; Stewart M.G.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 143, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 519
结束页码: 533
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Cost benefit analysis
; Costs
; Network security
; Poles
; Stochastic models
; Stochastic systems
; Timber
; Adaptation strategies
; Climate change adaptation
; Climate change impact
; Direct and indirect costs
; Maintenance practices
; Network vulnerability
; Power distribution network
; Stochastic simulation methods
; Climate change
; adaptive management
; climate change
; climate effect
; cost-benefit analysis
; decision analysis
; design
; distribution system
; infrastructure
; installation
; numerical model
; smart grid
; stochasticity
英文摘要: Power distribution pole networks are vulnerable to a changing climate. Climate change can increase wind speeds, and changes in rainfall and temperature can accelerate timber decay, affecting residual capacity of timber power poles. The present paper utilises advanced stochastic simulation methods to examine climate change impacts, and possible climate change adaptation strategies, for Australian power distribution networks. The assessment framework developed, which is applicable to a wide variety of infrastructure types and research areas, utilises probabilistic methods to investigate the appropriateness of climate adaptation strategies aimed at ameliorating the impact of climate change on critical infrastructure. Measures investigated include alterations to design or maintenance practices through, for example, installation of larger poles, more frequent inspections, or changes to pole replacement criteria. A cost-benefit decision analysis is developed herein using the latest AR5 climate projections, network vulnerability, adaptation measures, and cost and loss data for both direct and indirect costs. The net present value and benefit-to-cost ratio is calculated for different adaptation strategies over the life cycle of the assets up to the year 2090. An adaptation measure that allows for the installation of larger poles but less stringent pole replacement criteria has the highest net benefit—with a mean potential saving of hundreds of millions of dollars. © 2017, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83959
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Discipline of Civil, Structural and Environmental Engineering, School of Engineering, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland; Centre for Infrastructure Performance and Reliability, The University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Ryan P.C.,Stewart M.G.. Cost-benefit analysis of climate change adaptation for power pole networks[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,143(2018-03-04)