DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2019-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85021812380
论文题名: Potential impacts of climate change on wildfire dynamics in the midlands of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
作者: Strydom S. ; Savage M.J.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 143, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 385
结束页码: 397
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Fire danger
; Stochastic modelling
; Wildfires
Scopus关键词: Dynamics
; Fires
; Meteorology
; Stochastic models
; Stochastic systems
; Base-line conditions
; Climatic scenarios
; Fire danger
; Meteorological data
; Statistically significant difference
; Stochastic generation
; Wildfires
; Worst case scenario
; Climate change
; agroforestry
; baseline conditions
; climate change
; climate effect
; meteorology
; nature-society relations
; numerical model
; rainfall
; stochasticity
; tourism
; wildfire
; KwaZulu-Natal
; South Africa
英文摘要: The influence of climate change on wildfires has been studied at a global scale, but uncertainties on the influence at regional and hyper-regional level still exist. As the KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) midlands rely heavily on agro-forestry and tourism to support the local economy, changes in fire dynamics need to be taken into consideration. This study aims to investigate fire dynamics under different climatic scenarios for the KZN midlands, South Africa. Using 25 years of meteorological data allows for the stochastic generation of long-term meteorological data. Six climatic scenarios, describing a warmer and wetter climate and a warmer and drier climate, are used to adjust the generated data. The Lowveld fire danger index is applied to the adjusted data and analysed. Results indicat that annual average fire danger in the KZN midlands is likely to increase significantly under all climate scenarios. Annual average fire danger under baseline conditions (no climate adjustment) averages at roughly 25. When adjusted for the worst case scenario, the annual average fire danger increases to an average of roughly 28—a statistically significant difference. Increased air temperatures are shown to influence fire danger significantly. The KZN midlands are likely to experience an increased frequency of high fire danger days. Changes in daily rainfall are shown to significantly influence the onset and length of the KZN midlands’ fire season. Overall, the study indicates that the KZN midlands are likely to experience different fire dynamics under a changed climate, with significant implications for local landowners and local governments. © 2017, Springer Science+Business Media B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83966
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Agrometeorology Discipline, Soil-Plant-Atmosphere Continuum Research Unit, School of Agricultural, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa
Recommended Citation:
Strydom S.,Savage M.J.. Potential impacts of climate change on wildfire dynamics in the midlands of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,143(2018-03-04)