globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1844-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85010712152
论文题名:
An ensemble analysis of climate change impacts on streamflow seasonality across 11 large river basins
作者: Eisner S.; Flörke M.; Chamorro A.; Daggupati P.; Donnelly C.; Huang J.; Hundecha Y.; Koch H.; Kalugin A.; Krylenko I.; Mishra V.; Piniewski M.; Samaniego L.; Seidou O.; Wallner M.; Krysanova V.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 141, 期:3
起始页码: 401
结束页码: 417
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models ; Greenhouse gases ; Stream flow ; Uncertainty analysis ; Watersheds ; Adverse effect ; Climate change impact ; Climate projection ; Global circulation model ; Large rivers ; Potential benefits ; Regional hydrological model ; Streamflow regimes ; Climate change ; climate change ; climate modeling ; hydrological modeling ; low flow ; river basin ; seasonality ; streamflow ; twenty first century
英文摘要: The paper investigates climate change impacts on streamflow seasonality for a set of eleven representative large river basins covering all continents and a wide range of climatic and physiographic settings. Based on an ensemble of nine regional hydrological models driven by climate projections derived from five global circulation models under four representative concentration pathways, we analyzed the median and range of projected changes in seasonal streamflow by the end of the twenty-first century and examined the uncertainty arising from the different members of the modelling chain. Climate change impacts on the timing of seasonal streamflow were found to be small except for two basins. In many basins, we found an acceleration of the existing seasonality pattern, i.e. high-flows are projected to increase and/or low-flows are projected to decrease. In some basins the hydrologic projections indicate opposite directions of change which cancel out in the ensemble median, i.e., no robust conclusions could be drawn. In the majority of the basins, differences in projected streamflow seasonality between the low emission pathway and the high emission pathway are small with the exception of four basins. For these basins our results allow conclusions on the potential benefits (or adverse effects) of avoided GHG emissions for the seasonal streamflow regime. © 2017, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84037
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Kassel, Germany; Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research, Ås, Norway; Institute of Landscape Ecology, Justus Liebig University, Giessen, Germany; School of Engineering, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON, Canada; Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden; Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xinjiang, China; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Water Problems Institute of RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation; Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russian Federation; Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Gandhinagar, Gujarat, India; Warsaw University of Life Sciences, Warsaw, Poland; UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany; Department of Civil Engineering, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada; Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources, Hannover, Germany

Recommended Citation:
Eisner S.,Flörke M.,Chamorro A.,et al. An ensemble analysis of climate change impacts on streamflow seasonality across 11 large river basins[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,141(3)
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