DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1778-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84984638757
论文题名: Propagation of forcing and model uncertainties on to hydrological drought characteristics in a multi-model century-long experiment in large river basins
作者: Samaniego L. ; Kumar R. ; Breuer L. ; Chamorro A. ; Flörke M. ; Pechlivanidis I.G. ; Schäfer D. ; Shah H. ; Vetter T. ; Wortmann M. ; Zeng X.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 141, 期: 3 起始页码: 435
结束页码: 449
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric radiation
; Climate change
; Drought
; Hydrology
; Runoff
; Stream flow
; Uncertainty analysis
; Watersheds
; Climate change impact
; Drought characteristics
; General circulation model
; Hydrological droughts
; Hydrological modeling
; Hydrological models
; Hydrological variables
; Multi-model ensemble
; Climate models
; climate change
; climate forcing
; CMIP
; drought
; ensemble forecasting
; error correction
; hydrological modeling
; radiative forcing
; river basin
; runoff
; streamflow
; time series
; uncertainty analysis
; Amazon Basin
; Blue Nile Basin
; China
; Ganges Basin
; Mississippi Basin
; Niger Basin
; Nile Basin
; Rhine Basin
; United States
; Yellow River Basin
英文摘要: Recent climate change impact studies studies have presented conflicting results regarding the largest source of uncertainty in essential hydrological variables, especially streamflow and derived characteristics that describe the evolution of drought events. Part of the problem arises from the lack of a consistent framework to address compatible initial conditions for the impact models and a set of standardized historical and future forcings. The ISI-MIP2 project provides a good opportunity to advance our understanding of the propagation of forcing and model uncertainties on to century-long time series of drought characteristics using an ensemble of hydrological model (HM) projections across a broad range of climate scenarios and regions. To achieve this goal, we used six regional preconditioned hydrological models set up in seven large river basins: Upper-Amazon, Blue-Nile, Ganges, Upper-Niger, Upper-Mississippi, Rhine, and Upper-Yellow. These models were forced with bias-corrected outputs from five CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) under two extreme representative concentration pathway scenarios (i.e., RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) for the period 1971-2099. The simulated streamflow was transformed into a monthly runoff index (RI) to analyze the attributions of the GCM and HM uncertainties on to drought magnitudes and durations over time. The results indicated that GCM uncertainty mostly dominated over HM uncertainty for the projections of runoff drought characteristics, irrespective of the selected RCP and region. In general, the overall uncertainty increased with time. The uncertainty in the drought characteristics increased as the radiative forcing of the RCP increased, but the propagation of the GCM uncertainty on to a drought characteristic depended largely upon the hydro-climatic regime. Although our study emphasizes the need for multi-model ensembles for the assessment of future drought projections, the agreement between the GCM forcings was still too weak to draw conclusive recommendations. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84043
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany; Justus Liebig University Gießen, Gießen, Germany; Universität Kassel, Kassel, Germany; Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden; Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar, Ahmedabad, India; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, China
Recommended Citation:
Samaniego L.,Kumar R.,Breuer L.,et al. Propagation of forcing and model uncertainties on to hydrological drought characteristics in a multi-model century-long experiment in large river basins[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,141(3)