globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1773-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84994460618
论文题名:
A comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C
作者: Gosling S.N.; Zaherpour J.; Mount N.J.; Hattermann F.F.; Dankers R.; Arheimer B.; Breuer L.; Ding J.; Haddeland I.; Kumar R.; Kundu D.; Liu J.; van Griensven A.; Veldkamp T.I.E.; Vetter T.; Wang X.; Zhang X.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 141, 期:3
起始页码: 577
结束页码: 595
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Catchments ; Climate change ; Climate models ; Global warming ; Hydrology ; Climate change impact assessments ; Global climate changes ; Global mean warming ; Global-mean temperature ; Hydrological models ; Mean annual runoffs ; Pre-industrial levels ; Upper Mississippi ; Runoff ; catchment ; ensemble forecasting ; global climate ; global warming ; hydrological cycle ; hydrological modeling ; river basin ; runoff ; streamflow ; Amazon Basin ; Australia ; Darling Basin ; Ganges Basin ; Mississippi River ; Murray-Darling Basin ; Niger Basin ; United States
英文摘要: We present one of the first climate change impact assessments on river runoff that utilises an ensemble of global hydrological models (Glob-HMs) and an ensemble of catchment-scale hydrological models (Cat-HMs), across multiple catchments: the upper Amazon, Darling, Ganges, Lena, upper Mississippi, upper Niger, Rhine and Tagus. Relative changes in simulated mean annual runoff (MAR) and four indicators of high and low extreme flows are compared between the two ensembles. The ensemble median values of changes in runoff with three different scenarios of global-mean warming (1, 2 and 3 °C above pre-industrial levels) are generally similar between the two ensembles, although the ensemble spread is often larger for the Glob-HM ensemble. In addition the ensemble spread is normally larger than the difference between the two ensemble medians. Whilst we find compelling evidence for projected runoff changes for the Rhine (decrease), Tagus (decrease) and Lena (increase) with global warming, the sign and magnitude of change for the other catchments is unclear. Our model results highlight that for these three catchments in particular, global climate change mitigation, which limits global-mean temperature rise to below 2 °C above preindustrial levels, could avoid some of the hydrological hazards that could be seen with higher magnitudes of global warming. © 2016, The Author(s).
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84045
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: School of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, United Kingdom; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg, Potsdam, Germany; Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrköping, Sweden; Institute for Landscape Ecology and Resources Management (ILR), Research Centre for BioSystems, Land Use and Nutrition (iFZ), Justus Liebig University, Giessen, Germany; Centre for International Development and Environmental Research (ZEU), Justus Liebig University, Giessen, Germany; School of Environmental Science and Engineering, South University of Science and Technology of China, Shenzhen, China; Institute of Water Resources Management, Hydrology and Agricultural Hydraulic Engineering, Leibniz Hannover University, Hannover, Germany; Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Oslo, Norway; UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany; Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Agriculture and Environment, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia; School of Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, China; Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium; UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft, Netherlands; Vrije Universiteit, Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Amsterdam, Netherlands; State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Center for Global Change and Water Cycle, Hohai University, Nanjing, China

Recommended Citation:
Gosling S.N.,Zaherpour J.,Mount N.J.,et al. A comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,141(3)
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