DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1723-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84976332539
论文题名: Analysis of hydrological extremes at different hydro-climatic regimes under present and future conditions
作者: Pechlivanidis I.G. ; Arheimer B. ; Donnelly C. ; Hundecha Y. ; Huang S. ; Aich V. ; Samaniego L. ; Eisner S. ; Shi P.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 141, 期: 3 起始页码: 467
结束页码: 481
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Hydrology
; Isomers
; Uncertainty analysis
; Climate change impact
; Climatic conditions
; Emission scenario
; Future projections
; Hydrological extremes
; Hydrological modeling
; Hydrological models
; Statistical significance
; Climate change
; arid region
; climate change
; climate conditions
; climate modeling
; hydrological modeling
; precipitation (climatology)
; river basin
; testing method
; Ganges River
; Lena River
; Niger River
; Rhine River
; Russian Federation
英文摘要: We investigate simulated hydrological extremes (i.e., high and low flows) under the present and future climatic conditions for five river basins worldwide: the Ganges, Lena, Niger, Rhine, and Tagus. Future projections are based on five GCMs and four emission scenarios. We analyse results from the HYPE, mHM, SWIM, VIC and WaterGAP3 hydrological models calibrated and validated to simulate each river. The use of different impact models and future projections allows for an assessment of the uncertainty of future impacts. The analysis of extremes is conducted for four different time horizons: reference (1981–2010), early-century (2006–2035), mid-century (2036–2065) and end-century (2070–2099). In addition, Sen’s non-parametric estimator of slope is used to calculate the magnitude of trend in extremes, whose statistical significance is assessed by the Mann–Kendall test. Overall, the impact of climate change is more severe at the end of the century and particularly in dry regions. High flows are generally sensitive to changes in precipitation, however sensitivity varies between the basins. Finally, results show that conclusions in climate change impact studies can be highly influenced by uncertainty both in the climate and impact models, whilst the sensitivity to climate modelling uncertainty becoming greater than hydrological model uncertainty in the dry regions. © 2016, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84053
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Leipzig, Germany; Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Kassel, Germany; Center for Global Change and Water Cycle, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
Recommended Citation:
Pechlivanidis I.G.,Arheimer B.,Donnelly C.,et al. Analysis of hydrological extremes at different hydro-climatic regimes under present and future conditions[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,141(3)