globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1829-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85008237817
论文题名:
Cross‐scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins
作者: Hattermann F.F.; Krysanova V.; Gosling S.N.; Dankers R.; Daggupati P.; Donnelly C.; Flörke M.; Huang S.; Motovilov Y.; Buda S.; Yang T.; Müller C.; Leng G.; Tang Q.; Portmann F.T.; Hagemann S.; Gerten D.; Wada Y.; Masaki Y.; Alemayehu T.; Satoh Y.; Samaniego L.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 141, 期:3
起始页码: 561
结束页码: 576
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Calibration ; Climate models ; Climatology ; Hydrology ; Rivers ; Water management ; Watersheds ; Climate change impact ; Climate variability and climate change ; Hydrological changes ; Hydrological models ; Large-scale impacts ; Management applications ; Reference condition ; Regional hydrological model ; Climate change ; calibration ; climate change ; climate effect ; hydrological modeling ; long-term change ; model validation ; river basin ; river discharge
英文摘要: Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity to climate variability and climate change is comparable for impact models designed for either scale. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climate change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of the two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases, but have distinct differences in other cases, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability. Whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models calibrated and validated against observed discharge should be used. © 2017, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84056
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; School of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, United Kingdom; Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada; Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden; Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Kassel, Germany; Water Problems Institute of Russian Academy of Science, Moscow, Russian Federation; National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, China; Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States; Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Institute of Physical Geography, Johann Wolfgang Goethe-University Frankfurt am Main, Frankfurt, Germany; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States; Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan; Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussel, Belgium; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria; UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany

Recommended Citation:
Hattermann F.F.,Krysanova V.,Gosling S.N.,et al. Cross‐scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,141(3)
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