DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1881-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85010749036
论文题名: To what extent are land resource managers preparing for high-end climate change in Scotland?
作者: Dunn M. ; Rounsevell M.D. ; Carlsen H. ; Dzebo A. ; Lourenço T.C. ; Hagg J.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 141, 期: 2 起始页码: 181
结束页码: 195
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Decision making
; Information management
; Natural resources
; Adaptation decisions
; Climate information
; Global annual temperature
; Incremental changes
; Information types
; Low probability
; Potential problems
; Sectoral impacts
; Climate change
; adaptive management
; climate change
; decision making
; knowledge
; land management
; resource management
; risk assessment
; stakeholder
; temperature effect
; Scotland
; United Kingdom
英文摘要: We explore the individual and institutional conditions and the climate information used to underpin decision-making for adaptation to high-end climate change (HECC) scenarios in a land resource management context. HECC refers to extreme projections with global annual temperature increases of over 4 °C. We analyse whether HECC scenarios are used in the adaptation decision-making of stakeholders who will tackle the potential problem. We also explore whether the adaptation actions being considered are pertinent only to future climate change or whether other drivers and information types are used in decision-making (including non-climate drivers). We also address the role of knowledge uncertainty in adaptation decision-making. Decision-makers perceive HECC as having a low probability of occurrence and so they do not directly account for HECC within existing actions to address climate change. Such actions focus on incremental rather than transformative solutions in which non-climate drivers are at least as important, and in many cases more important, than climate change alone. This reflects the need to accommodate multiple concerns and low risk options (i.e. incremental change). Uncertainty in climate change information is not a significant barrier to decision-making and stakeholders indicated little need for more climate information in support of adaptation decision-making. There is, however, an identified need for more information about the implications of particular sectoral and cross-sectoral impacts under HECC scenarios. The outcomes of this study provide evidence to assist in contextualising climate change information by creating usable, cross-sectoral, decision-centred information. © 2017, The Author(s).
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84072
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Institute of Geography, School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond street, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm, Sweden; Faculty of Sciences, University of Lisbon, Lisboa, Portugal; Adaptation Scotland/SNIFFER, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Dunn M.,Rounsevell M.D.,Carlsen H.,et al. To what extent are land resource managers preparing for high-end climate change in Scotland?[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,141(2)