DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1905-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85009841577
论文题名: Projected 21st century changes in tornado exposure, risk, and disaster potential
作者: Strader S.M. ; Ashley W.S. ; Pingel T.J. ; Krmenec A.J.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 141, 期: 2 起始页码: 301
结束页码: 313
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Disasters
; Hazards
; Risk perception
; Risks
; Tornadoes
; Built environment
; Hazard characteristics
; Human built environment
; Severe weather
; Risk assessment
; climate change
; disaster management
; disaster relief
; natural hazard
; risk assessment
; severe weather
; tornado
; twenty first century
; vulnerability
英文摘要: While risk and associated hazard characteristics are important components of disaster formation, the consequences of hazards are often driven by underlying human and built-environment vulnerabilities. Yet, there has been little research conducted on how the evolving contributors of risk and vulnerability commingle to produce disaster potential. In this study, we assess the interaction of risk and vulnerability by investigating a single hazard, the tornado. How future changes in risk and vulnerability influence tornado disaster probability is estimated by integrating, for the first time, projected residential built environment data and modeled future severe weather environments. Results suggest that, although the projected twenty-first century escalation in tornado risk will play a role in increasing disaster consequences and frequency, growth in the human-built environment is projected to outweigh the effects of increased risk on future tornado disaster potential. While changes in societal exposure are projected to overshadow potential climate change-driven alterations in tornado risk, the combination of both an increase in risk and exposure may lead to a threefold increase in median annual tornado impact magnitude and disaster potential from 2010 to 2100. © 2017, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84075
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Geography and the Environment, Villanova University, Mendel Hall, Rm. G67, Villanova, PA, United States; Department of Geography, Northern Illinois University, Davis Hall, Rm. 118, DeKalb, IL, United States
Recommended Citation:
Strader S.M.,Ashley W.S.,Pingel T.J.,et al. Projected 21st century changes in tornado exposure, risk, and disaster potential[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,141(2)