DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1788-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84992412991
论文题名: Climate change adaptation of coffee production in space and time
作者: Läderach P. ; Ramirez–Villegas J. ; Navarro-Racines C. ; Zelaya C. ; Martinez–Valle A. ; Jarvis A.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 141, 期: 1 起始页码: 47
结束页码: 62
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Adaptation
; Climate change
; Incremental adaptation
; Nicaragua
; Spatial modeling
; Transformative adaptation
Scopus关键词: Agriculture
; Climate models
; Coffee
; Adaptation
; Incremental adaptation
; Nicaragua
; Spatial modeling
; Transformative adaptation
; Climate change
; adaptive management
; agricultural management
; agricultural modeling
; agricultural worker
; climate change
; climate effect
; CMIP
; coffee
; crop production
; crop yield
; general circulation model
; global perspective
; smallholder
; spatiotemporal analysis
; Coffea arabica
英文摘要: Coffee is grown in more than 60 tropical countries on over 11 million ha by an estimated 25 million farmers, most of whom are smallholders. Several regional studies demonstrate the climate sensitivity of coffee (Coffea arabica) and the likely impact of climate change on coffee suitability, yield, increased pest and disease pressure and farmers’ livelihoods. The objectives of this paper are (i) to quantify the impact of progressive climate change to grow coffee and to produce high quality coffee in Nicaragua and (ii) to develop an adaptation framework across time and space to guide adaptation planning. We used coffee location and cup quality data from Nicaragua in combination with the Maxent and CaNaSTA crop suitability models, the WorldClim historical data and the CMIP3 global circulation models to predict the likely impact of climate change on coffee suitability and quality. We distinguished four different impact scenarios: Very high (coffee disappears), high (large negative changes), medium (little negative changes) and increase (positive changes) in climate suitability. During the Nicaraguan coffee roundtable, most promising adaptation strategies were identified, which we then used to develop a two-dimensional adaptation framework for coffee in time and space. Our analysis indicates that incremental adaptation may occur over short-term horizons at lower altitudes, whereas the same areas may undergo transformative adaptation in the longer term. At higher elevations incremental adaptation may be needed in the long term. The same principle and framework is applicable across coffee growing regions around the world. © 2016, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84083
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Managua, Nicaragua; CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Cali, Colombia; International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Cali, Colombia; School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Läderach P.,Ramirez–Villegas J.,Navarro-Racines C.,et al. Climate change adaptation of coffee production in space and time[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,141(1)