DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1833-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84992322975
论文题名: Climate change may speed democratic turnover
作者: Obradovich N.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 140, 期: 2 起始页码: 135
结束页码: 147
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change impacts
; Democracy
; Elections
; Political instability
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Meteorology
; Annual temperatures
; Climate change impact
; Democracy
; Elections
; Empirical estimate
; Future climate
; Meteorological data
; Political instability
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate effect
; democracy
; election
; electoral geography
; nineteenth century
; political instability
; temperature profile
; voting behavior
英文摘要: The electoral fate of incumbent politicians depends heavily upon voters’ well-being. Might climate change – by amplifying threats to human well-being – cause incumbent democratic politicians and parties to lose office more frequently? Here I conduct the first-ever investigation of the relationship between temperature, electoral returns, and future climate change. Using data from over 1.5 billion votes in over 4,800 electoral contests held in 19 countries between 1925 and 2011, coupled with meteorological data, I show that increases in annual temperatures above 21 °C (70 °F) markedly decrease officeholders’ vote share. I combine these empirical estimates with an ensemble of climate models to project the impact of climate change on the fate of future officeholders. Resulting forecasts indicate that by 2099 climate change may reduce average incumbent party vote share across all nations in the sample, with the most acute worsening occurring in poorer countries. If realized, these predictions indicate that climate change could amplify future rates of democratic turnover by causing incumbent parties and their politicians to lose office with increasing frequency. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84123
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States; Media Lab, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Obradovich N.. Climate change may speed democratic turnover[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,140(2)