DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1849-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84995757380
论文题名: Climate shocks and rural-urban migration in Mexico: exploring nonlinearities and thresholds
作者: Nawrotzki R.J. ; DeWaard J. ; Bakhtsiyarava M. ; Ha J.T.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 140, 期: 2 起始页码: 243
结束页码: 258
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Environment
; Internal migration
; Mexico
; Rural-urban migration
Scopus关键词: Digital storage
; Population statistics
; Regression analysis
; Rural areas
; Surveys
; Climate change adaptation
; Climatic conditions
; Environment
; Human migration
; Internal migration
; Me-xico
; Migration patterns
; Multilevel model
; Climate change
; accessibility
; census
; climate change
; climate conditions
; climate effect
; internal migration
; nonlinearity
; population density
; population migration
; population modeling
; resource use
; rural-urban migration
; threshold
; Mexico [North America]
; Populus
英文摘要: Adverse climatic conditions may differentially drive human migration patterns between rural and urban areas, with implications for changes in population composition and density, access to infrastructure and resources, and the delivery of essential goods and services. However, there is little empirical evidence to support this notion. In this study, we investigate the relationship between climate shocks and migration between rural and urban areas within Mexico. We combine individual records from the 2000 and 2010 Mexican censuses (n = 683,518) with high-resolution climate data from Terra Populus that are linked to census data at the municipality level (n = 2321). We measure climate shocks as monthly deviation from a 30-year (1961–1990) long-term climate normal period, and uncover important nonlinearities using quadratic and cubic specifications. Satellite-based measures of urban extents allow us to classify migrant-sending and migrant-receiving municipalities as rural or urban to examine four internal migration patterns: rural-urban, rural-rural, urban-urban, and urban-rural. Among our key findings, results from multilevel models reveal that each additional drought month increases the odds of rural-urban migration by 3.6%. In contrast, the relationship between heat months and rural-urban migration is nonlinear. After a threshold of ~34 heat months is surpassed, the relationship between heat months and rural-urban migration becomes positive and progressively increases in strength. Policy and programmatic interventions may therefore reduce climate induced rural-urban migration in Mexico through rural climate change adaptation initiatives, while also assisting rural migrants in finding employment and housing in urban areas to offset population impacts. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84136
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota, 225 19th Avenue South, 50 Willey Hall, Minneapolis, MN, United States; Department of Sociology & Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota, 225 19th Avenue South, 50 Willey Hall, Minneapolis, MN, United States; Department of Geography & Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota, 225 19th Avenue South, 50 Willey Hall, Minneapolis, MN, United States
Recommended Citation:
Nawrotzki R.J.,DeWaard J.,Bakhtsiyarava M.,et al. Climate shocks and rural-urban migration in Mexico: exploring nonlinearities and thresholds[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,140(2)