DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1808-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84987668089
论文题名: An investigation of future fuel load and fire weather in Australia
作者: Clarke H. ; Pitman A.J. ; Kala J. ; Carouge C. ; Haverd V. ; Evans J.P.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 139, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 591
结束页码: 605
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Bushfire
; CABLE
; Climate change
; Wildland fire
; WRF
Scopus关键词: Cables
; Climate change
; Deforestation
; Fires
; Fuels
; Risk assessment
; Surface measurement
; Vegetation
; Bushfire
; Ensemble members
; Land surface modeling
; Mcarthur forest fire danger indices
; Net primary production
; Regional climate modeling
; Subtropical area
; Wildland fire
; Climate models
; bushfire
; climate change
; climate modeling
; ensemble forecasting
; environmental impact
; environmental risk
; forest fire
; fuel
; grassland
; index method
; net primary production
; prediction
; risk assessment
; subtropical region
; Australia
英文摘要: We present an assessment of the impact of future climate change on two key drivers of fire risk in Australia, fire weather and fuel load. Fire weather conditions are represented by the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), calculated from a 12-member regional climate model ensemble. Fuel load is predicted from net primary production, simulated using a land surface model forced by the same regional climate model ensemble. Mean annual fine litter is projected to increase across all ensemble members, by 1.2 to 1.7 t ha−1 in temperate areas, 0.3 to 0.5 t ha−1 in grassland areas and 0.7 to 1.1 t ha−1 in subtropical areas. Ensemble changes in annual cumulative FFDI vary widely, from 57 to 550 in temperate areas, −186 to 1372 in grassland areas and −231 to 907 in subtropical areas. These results suggest that uncertainty in FFDI projections will be underestimated if only a single driving model is used. The largest increases in fuel load and fire weather are projected to occur in spring. Deriving fuel load from a land surface model may be possible in other regions, when this information is not directly available from climate model outputs. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84153
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science and Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; Climate and Atmospheric Science Branch, NSW Office of Environment and Heritage, Box 3720, Parramatta, PO, Australia; Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires, University Wollongong, Northfields Avenue, Wollongong, Australia; CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, GPO Box 664, Canberra, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Clarke H.,Pitman A.J.,Kala J.,et al. An investigation of future fuel load and fire weather in Australia[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,139(2018-03-04)