globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1749-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84986265070
论文题名:
China’s socioeconomic risk from extreme events in a changing climate: a hierarchical Bayesian model
作者: Yuan X.-C.; Sun X.; Lall U.; Mi Z.-F.; He J.; Wei Y.-M.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 139, 期:2
起始页码: 169
结束页码: 181
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Bayesian networks ; Climate models ; Losses ; Uncertainty analysis ; Changing climate ; Development scenarios ; Empirical relationships ; Extreme events ; Hierarchical bayesian ; Hierarchical Bayesian modeling ; Number of peoples ; Uncertainty bounds ; Climate change ; analytical hierarchy process ; Bayesian analysis ; climate change ; damage ; demography ; disaster management ; economic impact ; extreme event ; risk assessment ; socioeconomic impact ; uncertainty analysis ; weather forecasting ; China ; Hainan
英文摘要: China has a large economic and demographic exposure to extreme events that is increasing rapidly due to its fast development, and climate change may further aggravate the situation. This paper investigates China’s socioeconomic risk from extreme events under climate change over the next few decades with a focus on sub-national heterogeneity. The empirical relationships between socioeconomic damages and their determinants are identified using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, and are used to estimate future damages as well as associated uncertainty bounds given specified climate and development scenarios. Considering projected changes in exposure, we find that the southwest and central regions and Hainan Island of China are likely to have a larger percentage of population at risk, while most of the southwest and central regions could generally have higher economic losses. Finally, the analysis suggests that increasing income can significantly decrease the number of people affected by extremes. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84182
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology (BIT), 5 South Zhongguancun Street, Beijing, China; School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China; Columbia Water Center, Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; Key Laboratory of Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Recommended Citation:
Yuan X.-C.,Sun X.,Lall U.,et al. China’s socioeconomic risk from extreme events in a changing climate: a hierarchical Bayesian model[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,139(2)
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