DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1781-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84984820366
论文题名: Enhancement of heavy daily snowfall in central Japan due to global warming as projected by large ensemble of regional climate simulations
作者: Kawase H. ; Murata A. ; Mizuta R. ; Sasaki H. ; Nosaka M. ; Ishii M. ; Takayabu I.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 139, 期: 2 起始页码: 265
结束页码: 278
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Global warming
; Climate simulation
; Composite analysis
; Convergence zones
; East Asian winter monsoon
; Future climate projections
; Regional climate simulation
; Surface air temperatures
; Surrounding regions
; Snow
; air mass
; air temperature
; archipelago
; climate modeling
; ensemble forecasting
; future prospect
; global warming
; monsoon
; regional climate
; snow
; weather forecasting
; winter
; Japan
; Pacific Ocean
; Sea of Japan
英文摘要: This study investigates future changes in the accumulated and daily heavy winter snowfall in central Japan and the surrounding regions. We analyze outputs of the 48-member ensemble regional climate simulations in the historical and future climates. In the historical climate simulations, each ensemble member has a 61-year simulation from September 1950 to August 2011. For the future climate simulations, we also conduct 61-year simulations assuming the climate at the end of the twenty-first century (2080–2099) when the global mean surface air temperature is about 4 °C warmer than the pre-industrial climate (1861–1880) as projected under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Our simulations show that the heavy snowfall occurring at a frequency of every 10 years is enhanced in the inland areas of the central part of the Japanese archipelago (central Japan) where the total winter snowfall amount decreases significantly. Heavy snowfall is also intensified in the northern part of the Asian continent where the surface air temperature is much colder than over central Japan. A composite analysis of heavy snowfall events in central Japan indicates that such events occur when the Japan Sea polar air mass convergence zone (JPCZ) appears during the East Asian winter monsoon season. In the future climate projections, the JPCZ is intensified since the warm ocean supplies more moisture due to warming. An upward wind anomaly is also found over the windward side of mountains where the upward flow is prevalent climatologically. The intensification of both the JPCZ and the upward wind over the mountain ranges result in the enhancement of heavy snowfall in inland areas where the surface air temperature is still below 0 °C. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84187
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, 1-1, Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Kawase H.,Murata A.,Mizuta R.,et al. Enhancement of heavy daily snowfall in central Japan due to global warming as projected by large ensemble of regional climate simulations[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,139(2)