globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1736-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84978745651
论文题名:
Temporal variability in the thermal requirements for vegetation phenology on the Tibetan plateau and its implications for carbon dynamics
作者: Jin Z.; Zhuang Q.; Dukes J.S.; He J.-S.; Sokolov A.P.; Chen M.; Zhang T.; Luo T.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 138, 期:2018-03-04
起始页码: 617
结束页码: 632
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Biology ; Climate change ; Climate models ; Dynamics ; Ecology ; Ecosystems ; Vegetation ; Future climate scenarios ; Growing season lengths ; Interannual variability ; Interannual variation ; Net ecosystem production ; Net primary production ; Terrestrial ecosystems ; Thermal requirements ; Forestry ; algorithm ; annual variation ; carbon flux ; growing season ; NDVI ; net ecosystem production ; phenology ; satellite data ; vegetation structure ; China ; Qinghai-Xizang Plateau
英文摘要: Static thermal requirements (Treq) are widely used to model the timing of phenology, yet may significantly bias phenological projections under future warming conditions, since recent studies argue that climate warming will increase Treq for triggering vegetation phenology. This study investigates the temporal trend and inter-annual variation of Treq derived from satellite-based spring and autumn phenology for the alpine and temperate vegetation on the Tibetan Plateau from 1982 to 2011. While we detected persistent warming in both spring and autumn across this time period, we did not find a corresponding long-term increase in Treq for most of the study area. Instead, we found a substantial interannual variability of Treq that could be largely explained by interannual variations in other climatic factors. Specifically, the number of chilling days and fall temperature were robust variables for predicting the dynamics of Treq for spring onset and autumn senescence, respectively. Phenology models incorporating a dynamic Treq algorithm performed slightly better than those with static Treq values in reproducing phenology derived from SPOT-VGT NDVI data. To assess the degree to which Treq variation affects large-scale phenology and carbon cycling projections, we compared the output from versions of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model that incorporated static and dynamic Treq values in their phenology algorithms. Under two contrasting future climate scenarios, the dynamic Treq setting reduced the projected growing season length by up to 1–3 weeks by the late twenty-first century, leading to a maximum reduction of 8.9 % in annual net primary production and ~15 % in cumulative net ecosystem production for this region. Our study reveals that temporal dynamics of Treq meaningfully affect the carbon dynamics on the Tibetan Plateau, and should thus be considered in future ecosystem carbon modeling. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84191
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, CIVIL 550 Stadium Mall Drive, West Lafayette, IN, United States; Department of Agronomy, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana, United States; Department of Forestry and Natural Resources, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, United States; Department of Biological Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, United States; Key Laboratory of Adaptation and Evolution of Plateau Biota, Northwest Institute of Plateau Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xining, China; Department of Ecology, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China; Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States; Department of Statistics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, United States; Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Recommended Citation:
Jin Z.,Zhuang Q.,Dukes J.S.,et al. Temporal variability in the thermal requirements for vegetation phenology on the Tibetan plateau and its implications for carbon dynamics[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,138(2018-03-04)
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