globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1754-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84980000693
论文题名:
Effects of climate change on the distribution of indigenous species in oceanic islands (Azores)
作者: Ferreira M.T.; Cardoso P.; Borges P.A.V.; Gabriel R.; de Azevedo E.B.; Reis F.; Araújo M.B.; Elias R.B.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 138, 期:2018-03-04
起始页码: 603
结束页码: 615
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Azores ; Climate change ; Ensemble modelling ; Oceanic Islands ; Species distribution
Scopus关键词: Biodiversity ; Climate models ; Conservation ; Plants (botany) ; Population distribution ; Azores ; Conservation priorities ; Ensemble forecasting ; Implications for futures ; Oceanic islands ; Potential distributions ; Regional climate modeling ; Species distributions ; Climate change ; archipelago ; arthropod ; biological invasion ; bryophyte ; climate change ; endemic species ; ensemble forecasting ; extinction ; habitat fragmentation ; population distribution ; range expansion ; species diversity ; Azores ; Portugal ; Sao Miguel ; Terceira ; Arthropoda ; bryophytes ; Tracheophyta
英文摘要: Oceanic islands host a high proportion of the world’s endemic species. Many such species are at risk of extinction owing to habitat degradation and loss, biological invasions and other threats, but little is known about the effects of climate change on island native biodiversity. The Azorean archipelago provides a unique opportunity to study species-climate-change relationships. We used ensemble forecasting to evaluate the current and future distribution of well-studied endemic and native bryophytes (19 species), endemic vascular plants (59 species) and endemic arthropods (128 species), for two of the largest Azorean Islands, Terceira and São Miguel. Using a Regional Climate Model (CIELO), and assuming the extreme scenario RCP8.5, we examined changes in the potential distributions of the species and possible loss of climate space for them. Models projected that 23 species (11 %) could lose all adequate climate on either one or both islands. Five additional species were projected to lose ≥90 % of climate space. In total, 90 % of the species were projected to lose climate space: 79 % of bryophytes, 93 % of vascular plants and 91 % of arthropods. We also found for vascular plants and arthropods a tendency for upward shift in altitude in their suitable climate space, while for bryophytes the shift was towards the coastal areas. Our results have profound implications for future conservation priorities on islands, such as for the redrawing of conservation borders of current protected areas. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84196
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: CE3C – Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes/Azorean Biodiversity Group and Universidade dos Açores - Departamento de Ciências Agrárias, Angra do Heroísmo, Açores, Portugal; Azorean Biodiversity Group (CITA-A) and Portuguese Platform for Enhancing Ecological Research & Sustainability (PEERS), Angra do Heroísmo, Açores, Portugal; Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland; Center of Climate, Departamento de Ciências Agrárias, Meteorology and Global Change of the University of the Azores (CCMMG- CITA-A), Universidade dos Açores, Angra do Heroísmo, Portugal; Department of Biogeography and Global Change, National Museum of Natural Sciences, CSIC, Calle José Gutiérrez Abascal, 2, Madrid, Spain; InBIO/CIBIO, University of Évora, Largo dos Colegiais, Évora, Portugal; Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 15, DK-2100, Copenhagen, Denmark

Recommended Citation:
Ferreira M.T.,Cardoso P.,Borges P.A.V.,et al. Effects of climate change on the distribution of indigenous species in oceanic islands (Azores)[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,138(2018-03-04)
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