DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1762-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84979966350
论文题名: Particulate air pollution from wildfires in the Western US under climate change
作者: Liu J.C. ; Mickley L.J. ; Sulprizio M.P. ; Dominici F. ; Yue X. ; Ebisu K. ; Anderson G.B. ; Khan R.F.A. ; Bravo M.A. ; Bell M.L.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 138, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 655
结束页码: 666
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Air pollution
; Air quality
; Behavioral research
; Disaster prevention
; Fires
; Greenhouse gases
; Health
; Health risks
; Particles (particulate matter)
; Pollution
; Smoke
; Chemical transport models
; Disaster preparedness
; Fine particulate matter
; Fire prediction models
; Particulate air pollution
; Potential health
; Potential impacts
; Wildfire management
; Climate change
; atmospheric pollution
; climate change
; disaster management
; fire management
; global warming
; health impact
; particulate matter
; pollutant transport
; smoke
; wildfire
; California
; Great Plains
; Oregon
; United States
英文摘要: Wildfire can impose a direct impact on human health under climate change. While the potential impacts of climate change on wildfires and resulting air pollution have been studied, it is not known who will be most affected by the growing threat of wildfires. Identifying communities that will be most affected will inform development of fire management strategies and disaster preparedness programs. We estimate levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) directly attributable to wildfires in 561 western US counties during fire seasons for the present-day (2004–2009) and future (2046–2051), using a fire prediction model and GEOS-Chem, a 3-D global chemical transport model. Future estimates are obtained under a scenario of moderately increasing greenhouse gases by mid-century. We create a new term “Smoke Wave,” defined as ≥2 consecutive days with high wildfire-specific PM2.5, to describe episodes of high air pollution from wildfires. We develop an interactive map to demonstrate the counties likely to suffer from future high wildfire pollution events. For 2004–2009, on days exceeding regulatory PM2.5 standards, wildfires contributed an average of 71.3 % of total PM2.5. Under future climate change, we estimate that more than 82 million individuals will experience a 57 % and 31 % increase in the frequency and intensity, respectively, of Smoke Waves. Northern California, Western Oregon and the Great Plains are likely to suffer the highest exposure to widlfire smoke in the future. Results point to the potential health impacts of increasing wildfire activity on large numbers of people in a warming climate and the need to establish or modify US wildfire management and evacuation programs in high-risk regions. The study also adds to the growing literature arguing that extreme events in a changing climate could have significant consequences for human health. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84201
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, 195 Prospect Street, New Haven, CT, United States; School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, 29 Oxford Street, Cambridge, MA, United States; Department of Biostatistics, T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, 655 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA, United States; Department of Environmental & Radiological Health Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine & Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, 146 Environmental Health Building, Fort Collins, CO, United States; Department of Computer Science, Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States; School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States
Recommended Citation:
Liu J.C.,Mickley L.J.,Sulprizio M.P.,et al. Particulate air pollution from wildfires in the Western US under climate change[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,138(2018-03-04)