DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1717-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84973620757
论文题名: Towards a genotypic adaptation strategy for Indian groundnut cultivation using an ensemble of crop simulations
作者: Ramirez-Villegas J. ; Challinor A.J.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 138, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 223
结束页码: 238
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Agriculture
; Climate models
; Crops
; Cultivation
; Productivity
; Soil moisture
; Adaptation strategies
; Agricultural productivity
; Bias-correction methods
; Climate change impact
; Future climate scenarios
; General large-area models
; Transpiration rates
; Uncertainty quantifications
; Climate change
; agricultural intensification
; agricultural management
; agricultural production
; climate change
; crop improvement
; cultivation
; food availability
; genotype
; groundnut
; integrated approach
; photosynthesis
; soil moisture
; temperature tolerance
; transpiration
; yield response
; India
英文摘要: Climate change has been projected to significantly affect agricultural productivity and hence food availability in the coming decades. The uncertainty associated with projecting climate change impacts is a barrier to agricultural adaptation. Despite uncertainty quantification becoming more prominent in impact studies, the thorough quantification of more than one uncertainty source is not commonly exercised. This work focuses on Indian groundnut and uses the General Large Area Model for annual crops (GLAM) to investigate the response of groundnut under future climate scenarios, develop a genotypic adaptation strategy, and quantify the main uncertainty sources. Results suggest that despite large uncertainty in yield projections (to which crop- and climate-related sources contribute 46 and 54 %, respectively) no-regret strategies are possible for Indian groundnut. Benefits from genotypic adaptation were robust towards the choice of climate model, crop model parameters and bias-correction methods. Groundnut breeding for 2030 climates should be oriented toward increasing maximum photosynthetic rates, total assimilate partitioned to seeds, and, where enough soil moisture is available, also maximum transpiration rates. No benefit from enhanced heat stress tolerance was observed, though this trait may become important as warming intensifies. Managing yield variability remains a challenge for groundnut, suggesting that an integral approach to crop adaptation that includes year-to-year coping strategies as well as improvements in crop management is needed across all India. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84228
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), c/o CIAT, km 17 recta Cali-Palmira, Cali, Colombia; International Center for Tropical Agriculture, km 17 Recta Cali-Palmira, Cali, Colombia
Recommended Citation:
Ramirez-Villegas J.,Challinor A.J.. Towards a genotypic adaptation strategy for Indian groundnut cultivation using an ensemble of crop simulations[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,138(2018-01-02)