DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1703-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84971655158
论文题名: Global sea-level rise: weighing country responsibility and risk
作者: Hardy R.D. ; Nuse B.L.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 137, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 333
结束页码: 345
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Floods
; Gas emissions
; Global warming
; Greenhouse gases
; Risk assessment
; Accelerated sea-level rise
; Business-as-usual
; Global mean sea levels
; Global sea level rise
; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes
; Policy discussion
; Relative degrees
; Sea level rise
; Sea level
; climate change
; climate modeling
; emission
; global warming
; greenhouse gas
; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
; risk assessment
; sea level change
英文摘要: Accelerated sea-level rise will be one of the most significant effects of global warming. Global mean sea level has risen more than 0.2 m since 1880 and continues rising at above 4 mm yr.−1. Here we allocate responsibility to countries for global sea-level rise commitment (SLRC) over the period 1850 to 2100 and weigh that against their exposure to inundation from sea-level rise. We bridge two lines of climate-related research by combining assessment of countries’ greenhouse gas emissions with predictions of the multi-millennial sea level response to global warming. Under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s business-as-usual scenario our findings show that the five most responsible countries for global SLRC are also the most exposed to absolute land loss. This is mostly due to their own emissions, which we call intrinsic risk. We also assess extrinsic risk, defined as a country’s land exposed to inundation due to all other countries’ emissions. We show that for 6 m of global SLRC, the two non-island countries with the highest extrinsic risk are predicted to lose 27 % and 15 % of their own land, yet contributed less than 1.1 % each to the emissions driving SLRC. We anticipate that our findings will directly inform policy discussions in international climate negotiations by identifying the relative degree of country responsibility and risk associated with sea-level rise. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84241
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Center for Geospatial Research, Department of Geography, University of Georgia, 210 Field Street, Athens, GA, United States; Georgia Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Hardy R.D.,Nuse B.L.. Global sea-level rise: weighing country responsibility and risk[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,137(2018-03-04)