DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1693-2
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84969798693
论文题名: Assessment of RCM and urban scenarios uncertainties in the climate projections for August in the 2050s in Tokyo
作者: Kusaka H. ; Suzuki-Parker A. ; Aoyagi T. ; Adachi S.A. ; Yamagata Y.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 137, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 427
结束页码: 438
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Electric power system interconnection
; Climate projection
; Dynamical downscaling
; Global climate model
; Global Climate Model projections
; Regional climate modeling
; Regional climate models
; Temperature increase
; Urban canopy models
; Climate models
; assessment method
; climate modeling
; experimental study
; future prospect
; global climate
; metropolitan area
; regional climate
; temperature profile
; uncertainty analysis
; urban climate
; urban planning
; Honshu
; Japan
; Kanto
; Tokyo [Kanto]
英文摘要: This study provides the first attempt in quantifying the uncertainties in future urban climate projections due to regional climate models and metropolitan-scale urban planning scenarios. Targeted for the 2050s Augusts in Tokyo, Japan, dynamical downscaling simulations are conducted using two regional climate models, the WRF and NHRCM models, both downscaled from the global climate model MIROC5 under the RCP4.5 scenario. Both regional climate models are coupled with appropriate urban canopy models to accurately evaluate the urban climate. The projected 10-year mean temperature increases for the 2050s Augusts in the central Tokyo are roughly 2.4 °C and 2.2 °C, for the WRF and NHRCM models, respectively, with a roughly 0.2 °C difference between the two. Urban scenario experiments with the WRF model indicate that the compact city urban scenario can reduce the August mean temperature of surrounding residential areas by 0.4 °C, while the dispersed city scenario can increase the temperature by 0.1 °C. On the other hand, impact of urban scenarios on the temperature increase in central Tokyo is comparative or less than the surrounding areas. The impacts of urban scenario and regional climate model differences are larger in nighttime than in daytime, but are at most 0.6 °C. The results indicate that the uncertainties with the regional climate models and urban scenario are significantly less than those in emission scenarios or global climate model projections. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84247
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Center for Computational Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan; Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan; Japan Meteorological Agency, Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan; RIKEN Advanced Institute for Computational Science, Kobe, Japan; National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan; Faculty of Geo-Environmental Sciences, Rissho University, Kumagaya, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Kusaka H.,Suzuki-Parker A.,Aoyagi T.,et al. Assessment of RCM and urban scenarios uncertainties in the climate projections for August in the 2050s in Tokyo[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,137(2018-03-04)