DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1657-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84962166663
论文题名: Assessing debris flow activity in a changing climate
作者: Turkington T. ; Remaître A. ; Ettema J. ; Hussin H. ; van Westen C.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 137, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 293
结束页码: 305
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric movements
; Climate models
; Debris
; Potential energy
; Climate change projections
; Convective available potential energies
; Daily precipitations
; Debris flow activities
; Debris flow occurrences
; Future climate projections
; Global climate model
; Specific humidity
; Climate change
; assessment method
; climate change
; climate modeling
; debris flow
; downscaling
; global climate
; landslide
; river basin
; twenty first century
; Alps
; Italy
英文摘要: Future trends in debris flow activity are constructed based on bias-corrected climate change projections using two meteorological proxies: daily precipitation and Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) combined with specific humidity for two Alpine areas. Along with a comparison between proxies, future number of days with debris flows are analyzed with respect to different regional and global climate models, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and area for quantile mapping. Two different base periods are also analyzed, as debris flows were observed on only 6 (17) days between 1950 and 1979, yet on 18 (49) days between 1980 and 2009 for Fella River, NE Italy (Barcelonnette, SE French Alps). For both areas, future climate projections vary between no change up to an increase of 6.0 % per decade in days with debris flow occurrences towards the end of 21st century. In Barcelonnette, the base period and proxy have a bigger impact on the future number of debris flow days than the climate model or RCP used. In Fella River, the base period, RCP, and proxy used define the future range. Therefore the selection of proxy, base period and downscaling technique should be carefully considered for future climate change impact studies concerning debris flow activity and associated fast-moving landslides. © 2016, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84281
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation, University of Twente, Enschede, Netherlands; Institut de Physique du Globe de Strasbourg, University of Strasbourg, Strasbourg, France
Recommended Citation:
Turkington T.,Remaître A.,Ettema J.,et al. Assessing debris flow activity in a changing climate[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,137(2018-01-02)