DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1648-7
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84963642337
论文题名: Climatic and societal impacts of a volcanic double event at the dawn of the Middle Ages
作者: Toohey M. ; Krüger K. ; Sigl M. ; Stordal F. ; Svensen H.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 136, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 401
结束页码: 412
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Aerosols
; Agriculture
; Atmospheric radiation
; Climate models
; Cultivation
; Food supply
; Repair
; Sea ice
; Agricultural productions
; Earth system model
; Historical observation
; Maximum latewood density
; Northern hemisphere
; Temperature reconstruction
; Volcanic activities
; Volcanic eruptions
; Volcanoes
; climate effect
; crop production
; double diffusion
; financial crisis
; historical record
; ice core
; Middle Ages
; nature-society relations
; Northern Hemisphere
; radiative forcing
; reconstruction
; sea ice
; temperature anomaly
; volcanic cloud
; volcanic eruption
; Arctic Ocean
; Scandinavia
英文摘要: Volcanic activity in and around the year 536 CE led to severe cold and famine, and has been speculatively linked to large-scale societal crises around the globe. Using a coupled aerosol-climate model, with eruption parameters constrained by recently re-dated ice core records and historical observations of the aerosol cloud, we reconstruct the radiative forcing resulting from a sequence of two major volcanic eruptions in 536 and 540 CE. We estimate that the decadal-scale Northern Hemisphere (NH) extra-tropical radiative forcing from this volcanic “double event” was larger than that of any period in existing reconstructions of the last 1200 years. Earth system model simulations including the volcanic forcing show peak NH mean temperature anomalies reaching more than −2 °C, and show agreement with the limited number of available maximum latewood density temperature reconstructions. The simulations also produce decadal-scale anomalies of Arctic sea ice. The simulated cooling is interpreted in terms of probable impacts on agricultural production in Europe, and implies a high likelihood of multiple years of significant decreases in crop production across Scandinavia, supporting the theory of a connection between the 536 and 540 eruptions and evidence of societal crisis dated to the mid-6th century. © 2016, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84304
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Ocean Circulation and Climate Dynamics, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Düsternbrooker Weg 20, Kiel, Germany; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway; Paul Scherrer Institut, Villigen, Switzerland; Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV, United States; Centre for Earth Evolution and Dynamics, University of Oslo, PO Box 1028, Blindern, Oslo, Norway
Recommended Citation:
Toohey M.,Krüger K.,Sigl M.,et al. Climatic and societal impacts of a volcanic double event at the dawn of the Middle Ages[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,136(2018-03-04)