DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1595-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84961830181
论文题名: DADA: data assimilation for the detection and attribution of weather and climate-related events
作者: Hannart A. ; Carrassi A. ; Bocquet M. ; Ghil M. ; Naveau P. ; Pulido M. ; Ruiz J. ; Tandeo P.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 136, 期: 2 起始页码: 155
结束页码: 174
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Causality theory
; Data assimilation
; Event attribution
; Modified Lorenz model
Scopus关键词: Computation theory
; Forecasting
; Meteorology
; Atmospheric observations
; Causal attributions
; Causality theory
; Data assimilation
; Detection and attributions
; Event attribution
; Lorenz model
; Numerical weather prediction models
; Weather forecasting
; data assimilation
; numerical method
; numerical model
; real time
; theory
; weather
; weather forecasting
; weather station
英文摘要: We describe a new approach that allows for systematic causal attribution of weather and climate-related events, in near-real time. The method is designed so as to facilitate its implementation at meteorological centers by relying on data and methods that are routinely available when numerically forecasting the weather. We thus show that causal attribution can be obtained as a by-product of data assimilation procedures run on a daily basis to update numerical weather prediction (NWP) models with new atmospheric observations; hence, the proposed methodology can take advantage of the powerful computational and observational capacity of weather forecasting centers. We explain the theoretical rationale of this approach and sketch the most prominent features of a “data assimilation–based detection and attribution” (DADA) procedure. The proposal is illustrated in the context of the classical three-variable Lorenz model with additional forcing. The paper concludes by raising several theoretical and practical questions that need to be addressed to make the proposal operational within NWP centers. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84310
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: IFAECI, CNRS-CONICET-UBA, Pab. II, piso 2, Ciudad Universitaria, Buenos Aires, Argentina; Mohn-Sverdrup Center, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway; CEREA, joint laboratory Ãcole des Ponts ParisTech and EDF R&D, Université Paris-Est, Champs-sur-Marne, France; Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris, France; University of California, Los Angeles, CA, United States; LSCE, CNRS, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; Department of Physics, Universidad Nacional del Nordeste, Corrientes, Argentina; Télécom Bretagne, Brest, France
Recommended Citation:
Hannart A.,Carrassi A.,Bocquet M.,et al. DADA: data assimilation for the detection and attribution of weather and climate-related events[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,136(2)