DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1368-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84925276275
论文题名: Emissions and their drivers: sensitivity to economic growth and fossil fuel availability across world regions
作者: Mouratiadou I. ; Luderer G. ; Bauer N. ; Kriegler E.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 136, 期: 1 起始页码: 23
结束页码: 37
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Carbon
; Climate change
; Developing countries
; Fossil fuels
; Fuels
; Sensitivity analysis
; Uncertainty analysis
; Base-line assumptions
; Climate change mitigation
; Climate policy scenarios
; Developing regions
; Economic development
; Economic growth rate
; Mitigation strategy
; Renewable resource
; Economics
; carbon emission
; climate change
; developing world
; economic development
; economic growth
; emission
; environmental protection
; fossil fuel
; pollutant source
; renewable resource
; Africa
; China
; Europe
; India
; United States
英文摘要: This paper investigates the extent to which uncertainty on regional patterns of economic growth and fossil fuel availability impacts regional emission patterns, emission drivers, and regional mitigation potentials and strategies, through an analysis across five key world regions in different stages of their economic development (Africa, India, China, Europe and the USA) using a set of scenarios simulated with the REMIND model. Important differences are identified in emission trajectories of developed, emerging and developing regions, in both the baseline and the climate policy scenarios, due to differences in economic growth rates, energy and carbon intensity developments, and mitigation potentials. In the baseline, energy intensity developments vary strongly with economic growth assumptions, while fossil fuel availability has a particularly strong effect on carbon intensity developments which result in more region-specific sensitivity than do economic growth variations. On the other hand, the core findings associated to climate policy and regional mitigation strategies remain unaffected by this uncertainty. In all baseline scenarios China, the USA and India are the greatest emitters in terms of cumulated 21st century emissions, comprising almost 50 % of the global total. Differences in terms of per capita emissions between developed and developing countries persist under either baseline assumption, but are contracted under climate policy. Long-term per capita emissions remain above world average in China, India and Europe, reflecting their relatively smaller renewable resource potentials. The core regional technological implications of climate change mitigation are insensitive to economic growth and fossil fuel availability assumptions. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84314
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), PO Box 60 12 03, Potsdam, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Mouratiadou I.,Luderer G.,Bauer N.,et al. Emissions and their drivers: sensitivity to economic growth and fossil fuel availability across world regions[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,136(1)