DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1619-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84957596462
论文题名: Impacts of regional climate change on air quality projections and associated uncertainties
作者: Lacressonnière G. ; Foret G. ; Beekmann M. ; Siour G. ; Engardt M. ; Gauss M. ; Watson L. ; Andersson C. ; Colette A. ; Josse B. ; Marécal V. ; Nyiri A. ; Vautard R.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 136, 期: 2 起始页码: 309
结束页码: 324
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Air pollution
; Air quality
; Atmospheric movements
; Climate models
; Global warming
; Meteorology
; Uncertainty analysis
; Air pollutants
; Biogenic emission
; Chemistry transport model
; Inter-decadal variability
; Meteorological data
; Model ensembles
; Modeling variability
; Regional climate changes
; Climate change
; air quality
; atmospheric pollution
; biogenic emission
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; dust
; pollutant transport
; prediction
; regional climate
; uncertainty analysis
; Russian Federation
; Spain
; Ukraine
英文摘要: A 2-degree global warming is likely to affect the production, deposition, and transport of air pollutants, leading to impacts on air quality and health. In the present study we use an ensemble of four regional chemistry-transport models, driven by meteorological data from different climate models, to assess such changes and their uncertainties for PM2.5 and SOMO35. Changes and uncertainties are compared to the inter-model variability. We find that the impact of regional climate change on PM2.5, averaged over the model ensemble, ranges from −0.5 μg.m−3 to +1.3 μg.m−3 over Europe. It mainly results from changes in natural and biogenic emissions, such as desert dust, sea salt and biogenic VOCs. Statistically significant decreases in PM2.5 are found over southwestern Russia and Ukraine as well as an increase over Southern Spain. Modeled changes in summer ozone levels range from −1.7 to 1.6 ppbv. We find a smaller ensemble-mean evolution of SOMO35 as compared to inter-model variability. We also investigate the uncertainty due to inter-decadal variability and find that 10-year periods may not be sufficient to allow the detection of statistically significant change signals. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84318
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: IPSL/LISA, CNRS/INSU, Créteil, France; SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden; EMEP MSC-W, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway; CNRM-GAME, Météo-France and CNRS, Toulouse, France; INERIS, Verneuil-en-Halatte, France; IPSL/LSCE, CEA/CNRS/UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; ARIA-Technologies, Boulogne-Billancourt, France
Recommended Citation:
Lacressonnière G.,Foret G.,Beekmann M.,et al. Impacts of regional climate change on air quality projections and associated uncertainties[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,136(2)