DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0901-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84885487916
论文题名: Global fossil energy markets and climate change mitigation – an analysis with REMIND
作者: Bauer N. ; Mouratiadou I. ; Luderer G. ; Baumstark L. ; Brecha R.J. ; Edenhofer O. ; Kriegler E.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 136, 期: 1 起始页码: 69
结束页码: 82
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Carbon
; Carbon dioxide
; Climate models
; Coal
; Commerce
; Costs
; Economics
; Energy management
; Extraction
; Fossil fuel deposits
; Fossil fuels
; Fuels
; Greenhouse gases
; International trade
; Petroleum deposits
; Power markets
; Proven reserves
; Climate change mitigation
; Climate stabilization
; Conventional oil and gas
; Fossil fuel resources
; Fossil resources
; International markets
; Net present value
; Resource extraction
; Climate change
英文摘要: We analyze the dynamics of global fossil resource markets under different assumptions for the supply of fossil fuel resources, development pathways for energy demand, and climate policy settings. Resource markets, in particular the oil market, are characterized by a large discrepancy between costs of resource extraction and commodity prices on international markets. We explain this observation in terms of (a) the intertemporal scarcity rent, (b) regional price differentials arising from trade and transport costs, (c) heterogeneity and inertia in the extraction sector. These effects are captured by the REMIND model. We use the model to explore economic effects of changes in coal, oil and gas markets induced by climate-change mitigation policies. A large share of fossil fuel reserves and resources will be used in the absence of climate policy leading to atmospheric GHG concentrations well beyond a level of 550 ppm CO2-eq. This result holds independently of different assumptions about energy demand and fossil fuel availability. Achieving ambitious climate targets will drastically reduce fossil fuel consumption, in particular the consumption of coal. Conventional oil and gas as well as non-conventional oil reserves are still exhausted. We find the net present value of fossil fuel rent until 2100 at 30tril.US$ with a large share of oil and a small share of coal. This is reduced by 9 and 12tril.US$ to achieve climate stabilization at 550 and 450 ppm CO2-eq, respectively. This loss is, however, overcompensated by revenues from carbon pricing that are 21 and 32tril.US$, respectively. The overcompensation also holds under variations of energy demand and fossil fuel supply. © 2013, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84329
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 601203, Potsdam, Germany; Department of Physics, University of Dayton, Dayton, OH, United States
Recommended Citation:
Bauer N.,Mouratiadou I.,Luderer G.,et al. Global fossil energy markets and climate change mitigation – an analysis with REMIND[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,136(1)