DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1570-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84959134737
论文题名: Projections of future floods and hydrological droughts in Europe under a +2°C global warming
作者: Roudier P. ; Andersson J.C.M. ; Donnelly C. ; Feyen L. ; Greuell W. ; Ludwig F.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 135, 期: 2 起始页码: 341
结束页码: 355
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Drought
; Floods
; Global warming
; Hydrology
; Climate model simulations
; Drought duration
; Extreme flood
; Flood magnitudes
; Hydrological droughts
; Hydrological modeling
; Hydrological models
; Southern Europe
; Climate models
; climate change
; climate modeling
; flood
; future prospect
; global warming
; hydrological modeling
; Balkans
; Europe
; Russian Federation
; United Kingdom
英文摘要: We present an assessment of the impacts of a +2°C global warming on extreme floods and hydrological droughts (1 in 10 and 1 in 100 year events) in Europe using eleven bias-corrected climate model simulations from CORDEX Europe and three hydrological models. The results show quite contrasted results between northern and southern Europe. Flood magnitudes are expected to increase significantly south of 60oN, except for some regions (Bulgaria, Poland, south of Spain) where the results are not significant. The sign of these changes are particularly robust in large parts of Romania, Ukraine, Germany, France and North of Spain. North of this line, floods are projected to decrease in most of Finland, NW Russia and North of Sweden, with the exception of southern Sweden and some coastal areas in Norway where floods may increase. The results concerning extreme droughts are less robust, especially for drought duration where the spread of the results among the members is quite high in some areas. Anyway, drought magnitude and duration may increase in Spain, France, Italy, Greece, the Balkans, south of the UK and Ireland. Despite some remarkable differences among the hydrological models’ structure and calibration, the results are quite similar from one hydrological model to another. Finally, an analysis of floods and droughts together shows that the impact of a +2°C global warming will be most extreme for France, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Albania. These results are particularly robust in southern France and northern Spain. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84358
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Sorbonne Universités (UPMC, Univ Paris 06)-CNRS-IRD-MNHN, LOCEAN/IPSL, 4 place Jussieu, Paris, France; Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrköping, Sweden; Climate and Risk Management Unit, Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Joint Research Centre (JRC), European Commission (EC), Ispra, Italy; Earth System Sciences Group, Wageningen University and Research Centre (WUR), Wageningen, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Roudier P.,Andersson J.C.M.,Donnelly C.,et al. Projections of future floods and hydrological droughts in Europe under a +2°C global warming[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,135(2)