| DOI: | 10.1002/2015GL063303
|
| 论文题名: | Msultiannual forecasts of Atlantic U.S. tropical cyclone wind damage potential |
| 作者: | Caron L.-P.; Hermanson L.; Doblas-Reyes F.J.
|
| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
|
| ISSN: | 0094-8821
|
| EISSN: | 1944-8552
|
| 出版年: | 2015
|
| 卷: | 42, 期:7 | | 起始页码: | 2417
|
| 结束页码: | 2425
|
| 语种: | 英语
|
| 英文关键词: | Atlantic variability
; climate forecasting
; decadal predictions
; hurricanes
; sub polar gyre
; tropical cyclones
|
| Scopus关键词: | Forecasting
; Sea level
; Storms
; Tropics
; Wind power
; Atlantic variability
; Climate forecasting
; Decadal predictions
; Sub polar gyre
; Tropical cyclone
; Hurricanes
; annual variation
; coastal zone
; hurricane
; timescale
; tropical cyclone
; weather forecasting
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; United States
|
| 英文摘要: | There are strong decadal variations in Atlantic hurricane activity, with an active period in the 1950s and 1960s, a quiescent period from the 1970s through the early 1990s and a resurgence in activity since the mid-1990s. Using an index that relies on subpolar gyre temperature and subtropical sea level pressure, two quantities with links to hurricane activity, we show that it is possible to construct reliable 5 year mean forecasts of both basin-wide tropical cyclone activity as well as wind energy associated with hurricanes making landfall along the U.S. coastline. Furthermore, the index is capable of reproducing the major decadal shifts in activity observed over the last 50 years. This is the first time that a forecast system shows significant skill of a landfalling hurricane characteristic at the multiannual time scale and, as such, shows great promise as a valuable climate service product. ©2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84928703117&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL063303&partnerID=40&md5=29e5a7667511cebfac022f4fed8d590a
|
| Citation statistics: |
|
| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
|
| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8437
|
| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
|
|
There are no files associated with this item.
|
|
作者单位: | Climate Forecasting Unit, Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences, Barcelona, Spain
|
| Recommended Citation: | |
Caron L.-P.,Hermanson L.,Doblas-Reyes F.J.. Msultiannual forecasts of Atlantic U.S. tropical cyclone wind damage potential[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(7).
|
|
|