globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1544-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84958765916
论文题名:
Mapping current and future potential snakebite risk in the new world
作者: Yañez-Arenas C.; Townsend Peterson A.; Rodríguez-Medina K.; Barve N.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 134, 期:4
起始页码: 697
结束页码: 711
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change ; Climate models ; Consensus models ; Ecological niche models ; Health concerns ; Latin americans ; North American ; Potential distributions ; Risk predictions ; Rural population ; Risk perception ; future prospect ; health risk ; mapping method ; medical geography ; public health ; rural population ; snake ; Central America ; North America ; South America ; Western Hemisphere ; Serpentes
英文摘要: Snakebite envenoming is an important public health concern worldwide. In the Americas, ~300,000 bites occur annually, leaving 84,110–140,981 envenomings and 652–3466 deaths. Here, we modeled current and future snakebite risk using ecological niche models (ENMs) of 90 venomous snake taxa. Current snakebite risk predictions were corroborated by incidence data from eight regions/periods with different characteristics. Detailed projections of potential future range shifts on distributions of the medically most relevant species indicated that North American species’ ranges are likely to increase in the future, but mixed results were obtained for Latin American snakes. A likely expansion of overall risk area and an increase of rural population at risk were observed from a consensus model among future scenarios. Our study highlights the capacity of ENMs to provide detailed information on current and future potential distributions of venomous snakes, as well as useful perspectives on snakebite risk, at least broad scales. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84391
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Biodiversity Institute, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS, United States

Recommended Citation:
Yañez-Arenas C.,Townsend Peterson A.,Rodríguez-Medina K.,et al. Mapping current and future potential snakebite risk in the new world[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,134(4)
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