DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0925-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84959226955
论文题名: Spatial variations of sea-level rise and impacts: An application of DIVA
作者: Brown S. ; Nicholls R.J. ; Lowe J.A. ; Hinkel J.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 134, 期: 3 起始页码: 403
结束页码: 416
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Electric power system interconnection
; Absolute difference
; Global sea level rise
; Mediterranean coasts
; Northern latitudes
; Regional variability
; Regional variation
; Sea-level rise scenarios
; Uniform projection
; Sea level
英文摘要: Due to complexities of creating sea-level rise scenarios, impacts of climate-induced sea-level rise are often produced from a limited number of models assuming a global uniform rise in sea level. A greater number of models, including those with a pattern reflecting regional variations would help to assure reliability and a range of projections, indicating where models agree and disagree. This paper determines how nine new patterned-scaled sea-level rise scenarios (plus the uniform and patterned ensemble mean rises) influence global and regional coastal impacts (wetland loss, dry land loss due to erosion and the expected number of people flooded per year by extreme sea levels). The DIVA coastal impacts model was used under an A1B scenario, and assumed defences were not upgraded as conditions evolved. For seven out of nine climate models, impacts occurred at a proportional rate to global sea-level rise. For the remaining two models, higher than average rise in sea level was projected in northern latitudes or around populated coasts thus skewing global impact projections compared with the ensemble global mean. Regional variability in impacts were compared using the ensemble mean uniform and patterned scenarios: The largest relative difference in impacts occurred around the Mediterranean coast, and the largest absolute differences around low-lying populated coasts, such as south, south-east and east Asia. Uniform projections of sea-level rise impacts remain a useful method to determine global impacts, but improved regional scale models of sea-level rise, particularly around semi-enclosed seas and densely populated low-lying coasts will provide improved regional impact projections and a characterisation of their uncertainties. © 2013, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84392
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Southampton, University Road, Highfield, Southampton, United Kingdom; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Met Office Hadley Centre (Reading Unit), Earley Gate, P.O. Box 243, Reading, United Kingdom; Adaptation and Social Learning, Global Climate Forum e.V. (GCF), Neue Promenade 6, Berlin, Germany; Transdisciplinary Concepts and Methods, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), P.O. Box 601203, Potsdam, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Brown S.,Nicholls R.J.,Lowe J.A.,et al. Spatial variations of sea-level rise and impacts: An application of DIVA[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,134(3)