DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1277-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84959330291
论文题名: Modelling impacts of climate change on global food security
作者: Dawson T.P. ; Perryman A.H. ; Osborne T.M.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 134, 期: 3 起始页码: 429
结束页码: 440
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Agriculture
; Crops
; Food supply
; Land use
; Risk perception
; Adaptation strategies
; Agricultural land use
; Climate change scenarios
; Food and agriculture organizations
; Global climate changes
; Global food security
; Millennium development goals
; Modelling framework
; Climate change
; agricultural land
; agricultural modeling
; agricultural trade
; climate change
; Food and Agricultural Organization
; food consumption
; food market
; food security
; food supply
; innovation
; land use planning
; poverty alleviation
; United Nations
英文摘要: The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimate that nearly 900 million people on the planet are suffering from chronic hunger. This state of affairs led to the making of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals in 2000, having the first goal to “Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger” with a target to halve the proportion of people who suffer from hunger. However, projections of a rapidly growing population, coupled with global climate change, is expected to have significant negative impacts on food security. To investigate this prospect, a modelling framework was developed under the QUEST-GSI programme, which we have termed FEEDME (Food Estimation and Export for Diet and Malnutrition Evaluation). The model uses country-level Food Balance Sheets (FBS) to determine mean calories on a per-capita basis, and a coefficient of variation to account for the degree of inequality in access to food across national populations. Calorific values of individual food items in the FBS of countries were modified by revision of crop yields and population changes under the SRES A1B climate change and social-economic scenarios respectively for 2050, 2085 and 2100. Under a no-climate change scenario, based upon projected changes in population and agricultural land use only, results show that 31 % (2.5 billion people by 2050) of the global population is at risk of undernourishment if no adaptation or agricultural innovation is made in the intervening years. An additional 21 % (1.7 billion people) is at risk of undernourishment by 2050 when climate change is taken into account. However, the model does not account for future trends in technology, improved crop varieties or agricultural trade interventions, although it is clear that all of these adaptation strategies will need to be embraced on a global scale if society is to ensure adequate food supplies for a projected global population of greater than 9 billion people. © 2014, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84405
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: School of the Environment, University of Dundee, Dundee, United Kingdom; School of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, University Road, Southampton, United Kingdom; National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Walker Institute, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Dawson T.P.,Perryman A.H.,Osborne T.M.. Modelling impacts of climate change on global food security[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,134(3)